Wang Jin: The path to Syria’s current situation and what lies ahead
December 09 , 2024
By Wang Jin | a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).
Armed Syrian opposition forces seized full control of Damascus on Sunday, bringing an end to over five decades of Assad family rule. The rapid fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government followed an intense rebel offensive lasting less than a fortnight.
How did Syria come to this?
The rapidly changing situation in Syria is the result of a combination of factors.
Syria opposition groups have received more foreign assistance and aid than the Syrian government, leading to a change in the balance of power between the two sides. After the outbreak of a new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October 2023, Iran, the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi Shiite militias and other players in the Syrian issue have found it challenging to fully respond to the issue. In particular, Hezbollah withdrew its armed forces from Syria in large numbers, returning to Lebanon to respond to Israeli attacks. This withdrawal created a vacuum on the Syrian battlefield.
At the same time, the Syrian opposition forces, bolstered by Turkish integration and assistance, have become much more effective in their military operations. And the easing of internal conflicts between different forces has allowed them to conduct more unified and coordinated attacks against Syrian government forces.
The Syrian opposition forces have also applied more advanced methods of warfare.
For example, in the battle for Aleppo, a large number of drones were deployed over Syrian government positions, aiding the anti-government forces in battlefield reconnaissance and long-distance strikes. By contrast, the Syrian government forces still relied heavily on tanks, armored vehicles and long-distance artillery to maintain their firepower advantage. However, they struggled to effectively counter the fast-moving pickups used by the anti-government forces, and were challenged by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which their air defense systems could not adequately address. As a result, the Syrian defense forces on the front line were swiftly penetrated and found themselves unable to effectively respond to the attacks by the Syrian opposition forces.
The rout of the Syrian government forces partially stems from low morale, which in turn stems from the collapse of the Syrian economy. According to the World Bank, the Syrian pound plummeted by 141 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2023. Meanwhile, consumer price inflation rose by an estimated 93 percent, and cuts in government subsidies exacerbated the hardships faced by ordinary people. Since the second half of 2023, economic inflation has grown rapidly in areas controlled by the Syrian government. According to the World Food Program, the cost of living for the minimum expenditure in Syria has nearly doubled compared to last year. Compared to the same period last year, the price of natural gas has increased fourfold, gasoline by 50 percent, chicken by 29 percent and fruits by 50 percent.
Meanwhile, in areas that were controlled by the Syrian government, unemployment remains high. Traders face a shortages of raw materials and difficulties with importing, leading to rising import costs. Coupled with the weak spending power of the local Syrian market, many small traders are unable to sustain their businesses, resulting in a significant decline in market vitality.
High unemployment, soaring prices and low wages, as well as the persistence of economic and social development dilemmas, have eroded confidence in the government.
Though the army, which is an integral part of society, still had senior officers who supported the Syrian government, the middle and lower ranks, along with their families, were unable to get rid of the negative impacts of the economic difficulties.
What lies ahead for Syria and beyond?
Further risks and conflicts are likely to emerge in Syria.
Firstly, there may be a rift in the relationship between Syrian anti-government groups. As the two main Syrian anti-government forces, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, have not had a harmonious relationship for a long time, and conflicts and contradictions have occurred from time to time between them. They shared the goal of fighting the Syrian government forces and launching a joint offensive, but it is feared that after the military operation, the conflicts will be re-born, especially when it comes to the occupation of new territories, taking over the government’s property and planning for the future. All of these could re-ignite the internal differences.
Secondly, a new conflict may emerge between the Turkish-backed anti-government forces and the Syrian Kurdish forces. With the dramatic changes in the situation in Syria, the fall of the Syrian government, the Syrian Kurdish forces also want to expand their control area to the south, triggering suspicion from Türkiye and casting doubt on its support for anti-government forces. In particular, considering that the Syrian anti-government forces promote religious political ideologies, while the Syrian Kurdish armed forces advocate for secular political principles, a conflict may be difficult to avoid.
Thirdly, new contradictions and disagreements may emerge between the states involved in the Syrian issue.
The rapid seizure of power by Turkish-backed Syrian anti-government forces has given Türkiye a huge advantage over Iran and Russia in Syria, but Türkiye also needs to pay attention to the dynamics of the Kurdish forces in Syria and reconcile the relations within the Syrian opposition camp.
Russia is concerned about the survival of its air bases in Syria. Iran is worried about the fate of Shiite religious sites in Syria, and at the same time wants to maintain the land route with Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. Israel is concerned about developments around the Syrian Golan Heights and the fate of chemical and biological weapons in the hands of Syrian government forces, fearing that they may fall into the hands of extremist groups. Jordan and Iraq are concerned about the massive influx of refugees triggered by the Syrian conflict, with Iraq keeping an eye on how the Syrian issue impacts its own domestic sectarian relations and political stability.
Overall, the dramatic changes in the Syrian issue in a short period of time are beyond the expectations of all parties, and signal a new period of uncertainty in the Middle East.
From CGTN， 2024-12-9
