Wang Huiyao: The US-China Thucydides Trap is by no means a foregone conclusion
March 16 , 2025From SCMP， 2025-3-16
■ Instead, it’s a call to action. From helping mediate in Ukraine to investing in the US, China may yet defy historical negative trends.
By Wang Huiyao | Founder of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)
The Thucydides Trap – the idea that a rising power and an established hegemon are destined for war – often frames China-US tensions and conflict as inevitable. Yet I believe the outcome is determined not by fate, but by choice.
Harvard professor Graham Allison, who popularised the term with his 2012 Financial Times article, agrees with me on the role of human agency. As he put it during an author reading event for my book, Escaping Thucydides’s Trap: Dialogue with Graham Allison on China-US Relations, held last month on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference: “Structural forces account for 75-80 per cent of the outcome, but human agency shapes the rest.”
Peace is not an illusion – it’s a viable option if we act decisively.
The Trap can be traced back to Athens and Sparta, a rivalry that ended in war. History offers plenty of similar warnings – rising powers frequently collide with dominant ones. Yet exceptions exist. In the 1890s, Britain and Germany avoided military conflict through economic competition. Allison’s book, Destined for War – Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, does not predict doom; it challenges us to rewrite the pattern.
That China’s economy achieved 5 per cent growth last year and is projected to grow by another 5 per cent this year despite US containment efforts underscores the stakes. Over 70,000 American companies generate US$600 billion in sales annually there, with Tesla’s Shanghai operations driving its global success. These connections are not incidental – they’re a foundation for mutual benefit, favouring cooperation over confrontation, much as trade once steadied European power relations.
US President Donald Trump’s return to power introduces a new dynamic. While 80 per cent of Americans view China unfavourably, Trump praised Chinese President Xi Jinping’s leadership during his campaign. His focus on economic outcomes over ideological divides sets him apart from Washington’s norm.
At Munich, Allison predicted that by January 2026, US-China relations would “surprise us on the upside”, citing Trump’s deal-oriented approach and signs of thawing rhetoric. Appointees like former CEO David Perdue and financial expert Scott Bessent suggest a preference for practical engagement over entrenched hostility.
Trump’s emphasis on economic priorities opens avenues for dialogue on trade and technology. China’s 15th five-year plan, set to begin next year, provides a framework for new agreements – perhaps in infrastructure or investment in the United States – that align with Trump’s interests.
On Taiwan, the mainland of China’s economic incentives, such as deepened economic and tourism exchanges, could ease tensions and foster coexistence. These efforts could sway US stakeholders by showcasing shared gains. A modern communique, building on the 1972 Shanghai accord, might outline mutual commitments to stability and prosperity, lending diplomatic weight if talks deepen.
This extends beyond bilateral ties – it’s a chance to shape global outcomes. Consider Ukraine. Allison argues China could play a pivotal role in resolving that conflict, enhancing its international standing. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said no American troops would be deployed there, leaving the peacekeeping to European and non-European forces.
Russia’s resistance to an European deployment from Nato, the transatlantic alliance, creates an opening for China and other non-European troops. China is the largest contributor to UN peacekeeping forces among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. China and other Brics countries could offer neutral forces, even host peace negotiations in Beijing.
Drawing on its diplomatic experience, China could convene Brazil, India and South Africa to help to broker a Ukraine resolution, elevating its influence by providing more guarantees.
Trump’s aim to halt that war aligns with this opportunity; his planned visit to China within 100 days of taking office, or before June, is a window Beijing, Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Kyiv should seize – let us restore UN credibility and authority and pass a UN Security Council resolution to send UN peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.
Negotiations on trade, investment and even a phase two or phase three agreement could yield gains in areas Trump values. Organising international forums to reframe power transitions as opportunities for collaboration, not just conflict, could shift global perspectives. Success would stabilise regions and show China’s capacity to turn rivalry into partnership.
Trump’s tariff threats unsettle markets, but his preference for deals over doctrine offers China an advantage. Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasised in Munich that China’s approach rests on respect and mutual benefit – a consistent stance amid uncertainty.
Beijing can propose trade agreements or technology collaborations that appeal to Trump’s advisers, including business leaders drawn to China’s economic weight. It could encourage a practical approach in Washington. On issues like TikTok, an economic deal might reduce friction. Globally, China can leverage forums like the G20 to articulate a clear message of coexistence – not merely a rebuttal of conflict, but a constructive vision for stability through openness.
The Thucydides Trap is not a foregone conclusion – it’s a call to action. President Xi said it well: “There are a thousand reasons to make the China-US relationship a success, and not a single one to harm it.”
From helping to mediate in Ukraine to investing in the US, China may defy historical negative trends. Deepening ties with American business leaders close to Trump can also reinforce a focus on practical outcomes rather than political posturing. Facilitate peace talks to unite the Global South. Align the 15th five-year plan with US economic goals. Ease tensions through collaboration, not confrontation. Peace requires effort, not chance. The time to act is now.
From SCMP， 2025-3-16
