Mehri Madarshahi: The Global Upheavals and the Shifting Political Landscape
February 07 , 2025
By Mehri Madarshahi, CCG nonresident senior fellow
Since my last article on ‘Technological Innovations, AI, and Their Roles in Reinventing a New Path for the Future” in September, I have watched the world undergo tremendous upheavals. Amid inevitable storms and hurricanes, I have witnessed how the world foolishly builds hopeful castles in the sand, only to see them washed away by waves of economic, political, and social turmoil. As Chris Hayes aptly describes in his recent guest essay for The New York Times Opinion section:
“Between staying apprised of what is happening in the world and becoming a person who feels, we are trapped in an age that leaves no space to simply sit and think.”
The year 2024, now buried in history, was marked by unprecedented drama, economic disruption, and political upheavals, leaving deep scars that will take years to heal. In just twelve months, nearly 70 countries home to half of the global population held elections.
The Anti-Incumbent Wave
A common phenomenon across many of these elections was widespread economic dissatisfaction, driven by high inflation and post-pandemic disruptions. These factors led to a surge in anti-incumbent sentiment.
In 2024, half of the global population, weary of economic instability and agitated by the flood of disinformation on social media, rejected their sitting governments. Rob Ford, from the University of Manchester, referred to this trend as “electoral long COVID”, describing how the lingering effects of the pandemic influenced political discontent.
This anti-incumbent wave swept across India, the United States, Japan, France, Britain, and beyond nations that had been grappling with economic woes exacerbated by lingering pandemic-related health, education, social, and economic disruptions, and further worsened by the Russian-Ukrainian war, mass displacement, and conflicts in the Middle East.
Africa was no exception. Rising unemployment and economic inequality led to a historic decline in support for South Africa “African National Congress (ANC)”, the party of Nelson Mandela. This shift triggered mass protests across Mozambique, Senegal, Ghana, Botswana, and Namibia, where long-standing ruling parties were unseated.
Meanwhile, in Uruguay, the leftist opposition won the presidency, and in India, Narendra Modi ruling party lost its parliamentary majority despite the country status as the world largest democracy.
In Europe, turmoil continued. Japan politics entered a new era of uncertainty after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had ruled almost uninterrupted since 1955, suffered a major loss due to financial scandals.
The UK elections in July 2024 ousted the Conservative Party after 14 years, replacing them with the center-left Labour Party.
Meanwhile, in France, the anti-immigration National Rally party won the first round of parliamentary elections in June, but tactical voting by centrist and left-wing forces pushed them into third place in the second round. The result? A divided legislature and a fragile government that collapsed for the third time on December 4 after a no-confidence vote.
The European Union also witnessed a shift toward conservative populism, with far-right parties gaining ground in France and Germany.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth successive term in an election boycotted by the opposition. However, after months of mass student protests, during which hundreds were killed, she was forced to step down in August.
In Sri Lanka, voters elected the Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake as president in September, marking a dramatic shift two years after the public ousted the long-ruling Rajapaksa dynasty.
Nepotism remained a hallmark of several electoral outcomes. In Pakistan, after a chaotic February election, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s brother of three-time leader Nawaz Sharif took office. Similarly, in Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto, son-in-law of former dictator Suharto, ascended to power.
Professor Cas Mudde of the University of Georgia summed up 2024 as “a great year for the far right, a terrible year for incumbents, and a troublesome year for democracy”.
The Rise of the Far-Right and the Global Democratic Backslide
The rise of the far right was particularly evident in Romania, where C. Georgescu, a political outsider, won the first round of the presidential election in November, fueled by a TikTok-driven campaign. However, amid allegations of Russian meddling, Romania Constitutional Court canceled the presidential runoff just two days before it was set to take place a decision that shook the country democratic institutions.
Similarly, in Georgia, the pro-Moscow Georgian Dream party won the October election, suspending negotiations on joining the European Union. President Salome Zourabichvili accused the governing party of rigging the vote with Russian assistance.
The far-right pro-Russia Freedom Party won Austria elections in September an outcome that surprised few observers. After prolonged negotiations, the Austrian president tasked the party with forming a government.
Disinformation and the Manipulation of Elections
Across many elections, concerns over covert meddling and online disinformation grew. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, reported taking down 20 election-related covert influence operations worldwide in 2024 alone.
Efforts to counter disinformation were, however, often politicized and weaponized, reducing their effectiveness and placing pressure on governments to act. Populist leaders thrived in this environment, exploiting economic anxieties, blaming globalization, and scapegoating immigrants, refugees, and minorities. They blamed trade deals, foreign competition, and multinational corporations for economic woes. They promised to bring jobs back and protect local industries, resonating with those left behind.
Populist leaders amplified these fears, framing immigrants and refugees as threats to jobs, social cohesion, and security.
The Return of Donald Trump and the Shift in Global Order
Perhaps the most seismic political development of 2024 was Donald Trump return to the White House. Armed with full control of Congress, the judiciary, the Supreme Court, the Treasury, and the security apparatus, Trump wasted no time in implementing his agenda.
Donald Trump secured a second non-consecutive term as President of the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. His campaign focused on economic and immigration issues, and his victory has raised concerns about the future of American democracy.
Mere minutes after his swearing-in ceremony, Trump signed a flurry of executive orders that deported millions of undocumented workers, laid off a sizable portion of the U.S. civil service, dismantled key legal protections for minority groups, and used tariffs as a weapon to punish global trade partners.
By turning the practiced laws and orders (as the beacon of democracy) on their head, he cherished his new weapon tariffs as a triumph of the America First strategy against all whom he sought to punish. A week after his inauguration, a barrage of executive orders, bombastic proclamations, and occasional backtracks shaped his new term in office.
Trump’s hard-line stance on migration, skepticism of climate science, and opposition to laws and regulations protecting minorities, including the LGBT community, all constitute an attack on political rights. He acts as anAmerican Caesar a strongman, a quasi-monarch bending the political system to his will, even if that meant running roughshod over the institutional norms and checks that were supposed to temper executive power in a democracy.
To that end despite his denials on the campaign trail, Trump appears to be enacting elements of the right-wing Project 2025 plan to dismantle and reshape the federal government, purge the bureaucracy of potentially obstreperous officials, and position more loyalists over the levers of power.
Trump has proven to be much bolder in breaking with the traditional consensus on economics and politics in the West. His populist-nationalist campaign pitch has given way to the wealthiest Cabinet in U.S. history, replete with former CEOs and ultra-wealthy financiers who share Trump and Musk zeal for deregulation.
Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg increasingly influence public discourse, from space policy to free speech debates. Elon Musk case demonstrates the profound impact that a capitalist can have on the political landscape. His ability to shape energy policy, space exploration, global connectivity, and public discourse illustrates both the opportunities and risks of concentrated private power in democratic societies. Musk influence will likely continue to grow, raising critical questions about accountability, governance, and the role of capitalists in shaping the future.
Trump America First strategy has further accelerated the unraveling of global cooperation. His administration weakened international institutions like the WHO, WTO, and UN, paving the way for other power such as China to expand their global influence.
Donald Trump has emphasized pro-business policies, such as tax cuts, deregulation, and free-market reforms. This resonated with voters who felt globalization prioritizes corporate interests over local economies, a trend that has been nurtured particularly in the past few years, where the global liberal order has undergone a historic transformation.
Nationalist and populist movements have grown in power across the global North, including in the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Hungary, Austria, and Italy. They have also become disruptive forces in France, Germany, and Spain. This is despite the fact that most of these countries were the architects and proponents of the neoliberal economic order, working together to lower barriers to trade, promote economic development, and increase market access.
With Trump as the torchbearer, today we are witnessing the weakening of the global liberal order, and the now-rising ultra-right is attempting to reshape the discourse. This new movement has banked on the growing social isolation felt by vulnerable people left behind by forces outside their control. Their jobs in traditional industries were eliminated and taken over by technology, innovation, and offshoring. The rapid pace of modernization disrupted their familiar way of life, unraveled the ancient fabric of their faith, and created confusion and uncertainty. So, they found their alternative comfort in the ultra-right movement and ideology.
Moreover, the echo of Trump politics can be felt and heard around the world.
In France, Marine Le Pen National Rally blames globalization for eroding traditional French values and economic security, pushing anti-EU and anti-immigration policies.
Eastern European leaders like Viktor Orbr?n in Hungary reject EU norms on migration and multiculturalism, emphasizing national identity.
In Europe, democracy bumpy ride looks likely to continue, carrying along embattled incumbents who face challenges in Germany, France, and Canada.
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on December 16, triggering an early election likely in February.
Canada will vote in March 2025, with the governing party increasingly divided after almost a decade in power.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron snap parliamentary elections led to a deadlocked hung parliament. The resultant political instability continues to this day, feeding expectations that the ultra-right will rise to power after the 2027 presidential elections.
These events collectively could influence the global economic and political environment, shaping the trajectory for 2025 and beyond. Democracy and democratic rules may soon become a chapter in history, but the vacuum between what is and what has been and what will be must soon be filled with an alternative.
Although the populist and nationalist backlash against globalization and existing global governance institutions should not be overstated, a clear shift in American policy under Donald Trump appears to be underway. Whatever the future of his presidency, the disruptive effects of nationalist or sovereigntist influence on global governance appear greater today and more immediate than meets the eye.
China’s Opportunity in the Global Power Vacuum
With the U.S. retreating from multilateralism, China could seize the opportunity to position itself as a global leader. The new U.S. approach to international cooperations marked by nationalism, skepticism of multilateral agreements, and a transactional view of alliances may allow China, depending on its strategic objectives, economic power, and geopolitical ambitions, to expand its influence globally. As the world second-largest economy, it could continue promoting alternative economic models, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
With the U.S. withdrawing from agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) under Trump, China could step in to enhance regional economic leadership and position itself as a leader in global trade by supporting free trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and expanding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Trump’s withdrawal from or hostility toward organizations like the WHO, WTO, and UN could leave the door wide open for China to gain influence in these institutions and increase its control in others, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Global Development Initiative (GDI), and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) presenting alternatives to Western-led global order structures.
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement has also created an opportunity for China to position itself as a leader in green energy and climate diplomacy. China has invested heavily in recent years in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and green finance, projecting itself as a responsible environmental power.
support for Africa is another fault line for the US-China relationship. China’s engagement with Africa has been a defining feature of its foreign policy, notably through its Belt and Road infrastructure projects. Beijing recommitted to increasing investments on the continent after the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit was hosted in Beijing last year and China primed itself as a better development ally to African leaders who are already relying on Beijing for loans and other support.
On the military side, with Trump focusing on an America First approach and questioning alliances like NATO, Canada, Mexico and Europe, China has deepened its strategic ties with Russia, Central Asia, and the Global South potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
As for the technological innovation leadership, we must say that China is already shaping global technology governance through 5G expansion, AI (particularly with DeepSeek, known as distruptive), digital yuan, and alternative financial systems (like bypassing SWIFT with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) far in advance of the United States.
These new and enhanced strategies in Chinese politics may give rise to global skepticism, strategic competition with the U.S., and internal economic and political constraints. The real test, however, is whether China will be willing to offer a truly attractive alternative to the U.S.-led world order, in which multipolarity could replace uni-polarity given the changing global circumstances that will play a major role in its fomation?
The Future of Democracy and Global Governance
In modern liberal democracies, the intersection of wealth and political power has created a significant challenge to democratic governance. While democracy is meant to function on the principle of popular sovereignty, where elected representatives serve the will of the people, the increasing dominance of capitalists, oligarchs, and corporate elites has restructured decision-making processes to favor the interests of the wealthy few rather than the broader public.
The erosion of democratic norms and economic policies catering to elites has led to growing inequality, dissatisfaction with democratic institutions, and the rise of populist movements that challenge the liberal world order.
Liberal democracies were originally built on the idea of checks and balances, where institutions and political representatives limit excessive power concentrations. However, in recent decades, capitalists have increasingly bypassed traditional democratic mechanisms, often leveraging their financial and technological resources to exert disproportionate influence.
As democracy faces its biggest existential threat in decades, the Influence of Capitalists and Oligarchs on Liberal Governance is eroding democracy from within. Institutions like the IMF and World Bank warn that rising inequality is fueling political instability, social unrest, and the erosion of democratic norms.
Seema Shah, head of democracy assessment at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, put it bluntly:
“People want democracy. They like the theory of it, but when they see it in practice, it’s not living up to their expectations”.
As we enter 2025 and beyond, the question remains: What will fill the vacuum left by the decline of global liberalism? What are the possibilities for a multipolar world order to emerge? The answer will determine the trajectory of global governance, democracy, and economic stability for generations to come.
