Escaping Thucydides’ Trap and Developing Stable Major-Country Relations
【English】
[Chinese]
On Friday, March 22, 2024, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) held a book launch event and a seminar titled “Escaping Thucydides’s Trap and Developing Stable Major-Country Relations”, during which CCG released its latest book Escaping Thucydides’s Trap: Dialogue with Graham Allison on China-US Relations, published by Palgrave Macmillan, as well as its a Chinese edition, published by CITIC Press Group. This book launch was hosted by CCG with support from CITIC Press Group and Palgrave Macmillan.
Mr. CHEN Wei, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CITIC Press Group and Mr. Jacob Dreyer, Senior Editor for Business, Economics, Political Sciences and Law Books at Springer Nature Group attended the event and gave their remarks. Prof. Graham Allison was invited to join the event and participated in the release of the book together with Dr Henry Huiyao. Following the release, Prof. Allison joined Dr Wang in a dialogue on how to escape Thucydides’ Trap.
The China-US relationship is arguably the most important bilateral relationship of the century. Whether these two great powers can get along will affect not only their own people, economies and societies, it will also have a considerable impact on the security, peace and prosperity of the entire world.
Discussions on China-US relations often cite the ThucydidesTrap, which describes the risk of war when a rising power challenges the dominance of a ruling power, which fears it will be displaced. But can this concept, which is drawn from traditional models of competition in the West, be applied to the relationship between China and the United States, which have completely different historical and cultural traditions?
Currently, with the rise of the Global South and escalating geopolitical tensions, the China-US relationship has become increasingly complex and is exacerbated by trade disputes, global challenges, regional conflicts, the Taiwan issue and other factors. How China and the US can escape Thucydides’ Trap, develop a “new model of great power relations” and build “an equal and orderly multipolar world” is a matter of global concern.
In her opening remarks, Dr. Mabel Lu Miao, Secretary-General of CCG, extended a warm welcome and her heartfelt gratitude to Professor Graham Allison, Chairman Chen Wei of CITIC Press Group, Senior Editor Jacob Dreye of Palgrave Macmillan, and all the guests. She highlighted that people increasingly use the concept of the “Thucydides Trap” when discussing US-China relations, which is the main topic of discussion in the new book Escaping Thucydides’s Trap: Dialogue with Graham Allison on China-US Relations, which explains how to avoid the Thucydides Trap, which could be of great significance in eliminating misunderstandings between China and the United States and promoting cooperation between them.
CHEN Wei, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CITIC Pres Group underlined that as the Sino-US relationship continues to evolve and global geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty abound, the relationship between China and the United States has become a key issue in the world’s political and economic landscape. He noted that the “Thucydides Trap”, widely cited by policy-makers and the public around the world in describing Sino-US relations, has profound practical significance for the development of the current global order. He also recognized the insightful methods and suggestions provided by Prof. Graham Allison, the most important researcher and advocate of this theory, in the new book Escaping Thucydides’s Trap: Dialogue with Graham Allison on China-US Relations, which he said will contribute significantly to the research and exploration of the path of peaceful development between China and the United States in the new era. Chairman CHEN emphasized that the successful publication of this book would not have been possible without the strong support of global think tanks. He also hopes this book will help readers understand the diversity of the future of Sino-US relations and further build bridges of communication and dialogue between the two great countries and their peoples.
In his remarks, Jacob Dreyer, Senior Editor for Business, Economics, Political Sciences and Law Books at Springer Nature Group, emphasized that the introduction of the concept of the “Thucydides Trap” was timely, and that Prof. Graham Allison’s analysis is highly worthy of attention. He noted that since 2017, Sino-US relations have slowly spiraled out of control, resulting in significant negative impacts on both countries and their peoples. He continued by emphasizing that China and the United States have long been important trading partners with close cultural exchanges, but in recent years, cooperation between them has been less optimistic. However, the global challenges we face today, such as climate change and artificial intelligence, require unity and cooperation between China and the United States. In this situation, he hopes that both governments will realize the importance of dialogue between China and the United States, and it is also hoped that the publication of Escaping Thucydides’s Trap: Dialogue with Graham Allison on China-US Relations can promote the return of Sino-US relations to a healthy and stable development track.
During the book release session, the President of CCG, Dr. Henry Huiyao Wang, provided a detailed introduction to the new book, emphasizing that the publication of this book comes at a crucial time when Sino-US relations are plagued many uncertainties. In today’s environment where competition and cooperation have become the norm, it is essential for us to think about how we can better manage this relationship, face challenges together, and promote peace and prosperity worldwide. The inspiration and basis for this book are from the many dialogues and exchanges Dr Wang has had with Prof Allison over the past decade. The book focuses on Prof Allison’s views, articles, reports, and interviews on Sino-US relations from 2017 to 2022, which cover a range of topics from the future of Sino-US relations to historical lessons. Each chapter looks at how we can prevent strategic misjudgments, avoid sliding into war, while also proposing methods and suggestions to keep falling into the Thucydides Trap. Presented in an easy-to-understand Q&A format, the book aims to help people understand the reality of Sino-US relations, recognize that the relationship between the two countries involves both competition and cooperation, and contribute in their own small way to moving away from a zero-sum-game model.
In his remarks, Prof. Graham Allison, explored the complexity and subtlety of Sino-US relations against the backdrop of the Thucydides Trap. He emphasized that a look at the past five hundred years of history reveals that war between rising and ruling powers is not inevitable, but establishing a new type of great power relationship remains a challenge to be addressed. We are currently heading towards great power confrontation and need to find a way for China and the United States to coexist. Drawing wisdom from Chinese history and concepts like “Yin/Yang” “Rivalry Partners,” and “I am in you, you are in me”, he said that China and the United States should rely on each other and develop together, emphasizing the need for both countries to manage this competitive-cooperative relationship in a smarter way, build stable foundations, limit confrontation, and address global challenges together.
During the dialogue session, CCG President Wang Huiyao discussed hotly debated issues such as people’s concern with the risk of war, multilateral cooperation and AI with Prof. Graham Allison.
President Wang pointed out that the world today is vastly different from the past ad that countries must handle inter-state relations cautiously to avoid a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The current international order is ineffective at connecting parties through common goals or interests, while climate change, alongside pandemics, cyber warfare and AI pose a great threat to humanity. We need better cooperation among nations to address these issues.
Prof. Graham Allison noted in the dialogue that many now perceive war as distant and unlikely, believing nuclear weapons are entirely prohibited and pose little threat. However, the possibility of nuclear strikes was made more evident in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which makes it even more important for leaders to carefully consider decisions and avoid triggering major power conflicts. Currently, the world faces common challenges of climate change, nuclear threats, and the next global pandemic. Nations must recognize the complexity of the current situation and the necessity for unity and cooperation. While engaging in fierce competition, they also need deep collaboration, especially as the world enters the AI era in which technological advancements will undoubtedly bring convenience, but may also yield disastrous consequences. It’s essential for China and the US to ensure the safe development of AI technology.
Following the dialogue, media representatives raised questions and engaged in discussions with Prof. Allison on important topics such as Sino-US technological competition, ideological conflicts between China and the US, and the Sino-US relationship against the backdrop of the US presidential election. This exchange provided valuable insights and suggestions for overcoming the “Thucydides Trap”. CCG Secretary-General Dr. Mabel Lu Miao moderated the press conference.
Graham Allison is the founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and former director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He is one of the world’s most renowned political scientists and an influential voice on US strategy and national security. He has also served in a number of senior roles in the US government, including Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan and Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton. He has been twice awarded the Distinguished Public Service Medal. His works include Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971), Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (2004), Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States and the World (2013), and Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (2017).
March 22, 2019, Allison visited CCG and delivered a speech on “How China and the US Can Avoid the Thucydides Trap”
February 14, 2020, Allison attended CCG official side event at the Munich Security Conference.
November 19, 2020, Allison participated the 6th China and Globalization Forum online seminar
Graham Allison has maintained a long-standing friendly relationship with CCG and has participated in numerous events hosted by CCG. On March 22, 2019, he visited CCG and delivered a speech on “How China and the US Can Avoid the Thucydides Trap”. On February 14, 2020, CCG and the Munich Security Conference jointly held a dinner with the theme “US-China Cold War? Myth and Reality”, which Allison attended and participated in discussions. On November 19, 2020, Wang Huiyao invited Allison to participate in the 6th China and Globalization Forum online seminar organized by CCG, coinciding with the transition of the US government, where Allison shared his insights on “The Impact of the US Election on China and the World.”
April 6, 2021, Graham Allison attended CCG Dialogue with Wang Huiyao
March 3, 2022, Graham Allison attended CCG Dialogue with Wang Huiyao
February 18, 2023, Allison attended CCG official side event at the Munich Security Conference.
July 31, 2023, Wang Huiyaovisited Allison at Harvard Kennedy School.
February 17, 2024, Allison attended CCG official side event at the Munich Security Conference.
On April 6, 2021, during a CCG dialogue event, Graham Allison and CCG President Wang Huiyao engaged in an in-depth discussion on “US-China Cooperation in Changing Reality”. On March 3, 2022, during the CCG Global Dialogue event jointly hosted by CCG and the Harvard Kennedy School China Forum, Graham Allison and CCG President Wang Huiyao had an in-depth conversation on “The Future of Great Power Relations”. On February 18, 2023, CCG held an official side event at the Munich Security Conference titled “Oasis or Mirage: Analyzing China-U.S. Relations on Climate Cooperation”, where Graham Allison delivered a keynote speech. On July 31, 2023, during Wang Huiyao’s visit to the United States, he visited Allison at Harvard Kennedy School, where they had in-depth discussions on topics such as US-China relations, great power competition, and the future of globalization. On February 17, 2024, CCG held an official side event at the Munich Security Conference titled “China, Europe, and the United States: Climate Cooperation in an Era of Great Power Politics”, where Allison delivered a keynote speech.
