Home>Top Issues

Trade war unlikely between China and U.S.

Sunday,Feb 05, 2017

From: People's Daily Online


Trade war unlikely between China and U.S. after Trumptakes office: seminar

The incoming U.S. president Donald Trump adds more uncertainty to the Sino-US relations, but Trump’s aggressive remarks on economics and trade would not bring about a trade war between the two economic giants, which would otherwise make both suffer, experts warned prior to Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 19.

According to a report compiled by Center for China and Globalization (CCG), eight challenges await China after the U.S. enters a new era, as Trump intends to withdraw from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and renegotiate international free trade systems and use tax policy and other financial measures to encourage US enterprises to move back to the States, among others.

Addressing a seminar where the report was published, CCG director Wang Huiyao added that Trump’s cabinet has also seen more hawkish nominees on economics and trade.

Even so, there would not be a trade war between the two countries, while trade conflicts may be unavoidable, according to experts at the seminar.

He Ning, former department head on American and Ocean Affairs at the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that economics and trade are the motivator and bedrock of Sino-US relation and Trump is in need of the world’s second largest economy to help realize his pledges in jobs and trade.

“Once Trump is sworn into the White House, he will be restricted by the US political system that works to seek benefits for different interest groups for the most of the time,” He said.

“The U.S. would sure suffer more even if there was such a war, since it would lose millions of jobs – to the contrary of what Trump had promised – as well as the loss of major business deals, such as with Boeing. It would also lose the opportunity to tap into a third market together with China, for example along the Belt and Road initiative,” said Chen Wenling, a chief economist at China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

China and the U.S. are the largest community of shared interests when it comes to economy. With bilateral trade and investment worth billions of dollars, it is basically impossible for them to cut off the ties, Wang stressed.

In response, the report suggested that more focus may be on state governments in the U.S., which are more inclined to maintain close economic ties with China than fight over political conflicts. It also emphasized on the role multinational companies could play in stabilizing the bilateral ties.

President Alan Beebe from the American Chamber of Commerce in China echoed the report with the chamber’s latest survey on US enterprises in China, which saw more enterprises regard bilateral ties as “extremely important” or “important.” However, the survey also found a declining confidence in the bilateral ties under the new presidency, as only 17 percent of the enterprises said they believe improved ties after Trump took office.

As to whether US companies would answer to Trump’s call to go back to the States, Beebe said at the seminar the average US enterprises act rationally and in line with their best interests, but they also value predictability the most. (By Jiang Jie)

From People’s Daily Online, 2017-1-19

  • China to create its first immigration office to lure talent

    “China didn’t need to do that over past decades because it had double-digit growth simply by enjoying the demographic dividend,” said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), a research center that advises the government. “But now it needs a new dividend of foreign talent to help support economic growth.”

  • He Weiwen: Strong and Competitive Manufacture Industry Necessary to Fulfill China Dream

    He Weiwen: Strong and Competitive Manufacture Industry Necessary to Fulfill China Dream From: CCTV NEWS Tweet   【VIDEO】 He Weiwen, a senior fellow at Center for China & Globalization (CCG) spoke on Global Business CCTV news program about “Made in…

  • China’s high-speed rail ’miracle’ faces new challenge

    While China’s railway system has gone a long way in breaking records for length and speed, experts are now warning of new challenges, given that two factors crucial to the original success have shifted. Addressing a seminar on Dec. 13, Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), said that China holds many advantages, such as its huge population and mobile-friendly user base. High-speed rails will become a key factor as China globalizes, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, Wang believes.

  • Global push

    China’s most important holiday, the Lunar New Year, is drawing near, but entrepreneur Shu Wenbin has no intention of relaxing and taking time out to party. Instead, it’s his busiest time of the year.

  • CCG’s New Report Maps Out Paths to Realise Win-win International Cooperation through B&R

    CCG’s New Report Maps Out Paths to Realise Win-win International Cooperation through B&R     PDF Download On the eve of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, the Centre for China and Globalization (CCG) released a…