CCG publishes more than 10 research reports each year with leading publishers in China and abroad, providing academic support for the study of China and globalization and establishing the CCG as an authoritative voice in the fields of international talent, enterprise globalization, globalization. and global governance.
CCG continues to conduct leading research related to globalization from an international perspective, and publishes research reports on major international and domestic issues.
CCG has been granted Special Consultative Status by the United Nations and is a member of the Belt and Road Think Tank Alliance, a founding member of the US Research Think Tank Alliance established by the Ministry of Finance, a National Talent Research Facility, the site of the China International Professional Committee for Talents of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and a national Postdoctoral Programme research center.
After over a decade of development, CCG has grown into a significant think tank with global impact that promotes China’s globalization process. In the 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report released by the University of Pennsylvania, the world’s most authoritative think tank ranking, CCG was again recognized as one of the world’s top 100 think tanks. CCG was the first Chinese non-governmental think tank to achieve this feat and is consistently considered the leading Chinese non-governmental think tank in authoritative think tank evaluations at home and abroad.
The operation and development of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) is supported by the Dongwoo Globalization Think Tank Foundation. Dongwoo Globalization Think Tank Foundation is a non-public foundation approved by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and enjoys tax exemptions and concessions for individual and corporate donors. CCG is grateful for your recognition and attention, and your support will be the driving force for us to contribute fresh ideas and achievements in various research fields and help us achieve sustainable development. Thank you for your contribution to the globalization of China!
In 2023, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) celebrated its 15th anniversary. Over the past 15 years, we have been profoundly appreciative of the unwavering support received from all segments of society. With the collective attention and backing of various sectors, CCG has charted an innovative course, characterized by relentless dedication and continuous innovation.
On the domestic front, CCG has steadfastly championed the harmonious convergence of China and globalization across society. Our commitment extends to providing valuable guidance to policymaking and catering to the needs of the public. Internationally, we have been fervently engaged in think tank diplomacy, fostering the creation of a robust international dialogue platform, and actively facilitating people-to-people diplomacy and international cultural exchanges.
This year, the world once again stands at a pivotal juncture in history, grappling with a multitude of challenges that confront global development. In response to these evolving global dynamics, CCG has tirelessly contributed its intellectual resources to enhance international cooperation and champion the cause of inclusive globalization.
Diligently Practicing Think Tank-Driven People-to-People Diplomacy and Amplifying China’s Global Voice
It has been six years since CCG embarked on venture abroad in 2017. Even amid the challenging climate of limited cultural exchanges and mutual visits, CCG has continued to serve as a pioneering think tank in the realm of people-to-people diplomacy, breaking numerous records in Chinese think tank delegations. On the first anniversary of this “Icebreaking Trip”, CCG conducted a total of 6 global journeys, lasting a total of 71 days, visiting 22 cities in 15 countries and cooperating with top international multilateral policy forums such as the Munich Security Council, the Paris Peace Forum, and the Doha Forum, participating in agenda setting and holding nearly 100 official events.
During the Munich Security Conference held in Munich, Germany, CCG organized an official side event titled “Oasis or Mirage: Analyzing China-U.S. Relations on Climate Cooperation.” In Berlin, Germany, CCG collaborated with the BMW Foundation to host a dinner exchange titled “Cooperation in Competition.” In Paris, France, CCG paricipated in a seminar with the Aspen Institute. In Brussels, Belgium, CCG co-hosted three seminars in partnership with the European Policy Center (EPC) and also attended a luncheon hosted by the Europe-Asia Center. In Doha, Qatar, CCG had the honor of hosting two sub-forums as the exclusive Chinese partner of the 21st Doha Forum. These sub-forums delved into critical topics such as “Prospects for Peace in Ukraine” and “A Multilateral Dialogue on Regional Security and Diplomacy.”
CCG was also prominently featured on over 30 esteemed international multilateral forum platforms, where we articulated our perspectives on pressing matters such as China-US climate collaboration, Russia-Ukraine tensions, the Palestine-Israel conflicts, the emergence of a multipolar world order, the significance of BRICS, the Global South’s role in global affairs, and the advancements in artificial intelligence, among other critical subjects. These include the Paris Peace Forum, the 36th Asia-Pacific Roundtable at Kuala Lumpur, the Salzburg Global Seminar, the Munich Young Leaders (MYL) Annual Meeting in New Dehli, In, the 10th Arab-China Business Conference in Riyadh, the Horasis Asia Meeting in Singapore, the Bled Strategic Forum (BSF), the Mongolia Forum, the Global CEO Retreat, the Dialogue Between Civilizations On Global Commons in Vatican City, the H20 Summit in Geneva, the Global Solutions Summit in Berlin, the Gstaad Summit, the Dubrovnik Forum, sessions at the OECD headquarters in Paris, the Strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific Congress at the German Bundestag, the China-Africa Conference in London, the OMFIF’s China forum in London, the Eurasia Forum in Budapest, the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, the Stockholm Forum in Singapore, the 2023 Doha Forum held in Doha, Qatar, and the 2023 World Automotive Think Tank Conference held in Macau.
CCG undertook extensive visits to pivotal locations housing international organizations, notably New York and Switzerland, engaging with numerous prominent global think tanks and holding discussions with hundreds of distinguished figures from various backgrounds. Furthermore, CCG established contact with more than ten Chinese embassies across the world, including those in the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Hungary, Croatia, Slovakia, and Qatar.
These interactions encompassed in-person meetings with numerous highly influential international personalities, and CCG’s travels to diverse countries and cities fostered a wide spectrum of exchanges and influences. This collective effort marks an unprecedented chapter in the history of Chinese think tank visits since the onset of the pandemic.
Harnessing Think Tank Resources to Fulfill Our Consultative Mission
Throughout 2023, CCG has issued a total of seven research reports, published seven books in simplified Chinese, two books in traditional Chinese, and six books in English. Additionally, CCG has submitted 126 recommendations and produced ten editions of its internal reference journal. The subject matter of these recommendations closely mirrors the international landscape and the demands of the country’s endeavors in opening up and development. They encompass a wide array of current pressing topics, including China-US relations, China-Europe relations, developments in the Middle East, and global governance. In this way, CCG has contributed its invaluable think tank insights to relevant national ministries.
These include the new book Soft Power and Great-Power Competition [English & Chinese translation] by Professor Joseph Nye, former dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University; the latest work Asia’s 21st Century [Chinese translation] by senior Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani on the rise of Asia, whose English version has received widespread attention from the international community. Since its launch on January 1, 2022, the cumulative download volume has exceeded 4 million times, which is dozens of times the average download volume of academic publications; China in the Eyes of Europeans: Eight Hundred Years of Cultural and Knowledge Exchange [Chinese translation], Consensus or Conflict? – China and Globalization in the 21st Century [Chinese translation], Insight: China in a Changing World [Chinese translation], Global Think Tanks (2.0), Chine: Comment l’Occident se fabrique des ennemis [Chinese translation], Escaping Thucydides’s Trap, Strategies for Chinese Enterprises Going Global, The Challenge of “Going Out”, Transition and Opportunity, 2023 Report on China and Globalization, White Paper on the Cultivation of International Talent in China, Report on Talent Development in Asia under Technological Change, Report on the Development of Chinese Youth in New Professions under the New Employment Patterns, Report on the BRI 10th Anniversary, Strengthen Asia-Pacific Cooperation and Participate in Indo-Pacific Cooperation.
CCG was also invited to hold important forums at several national platforms such as the China International Import Expo (CIIE), China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS), and the Global Digital Trade Expo (GDTE). In the past year, CCG’s activity layout not only deeply covered the central level, but also deeply cultivated local areas, covering Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hebei, Shandong, Chengdu, Dalian, Macau, Hong Kong and other places. It has attracted widespread attention at the national level and established brand perception at the local level, laying a solid foundation for promoting international exchanges, think tank cooperation, and common development.
CCG’s research results have also been released to the world at high-profile events such as the China International Import (CIIE), China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS), the Global Digital Trade Expo (GDTE), the Global Talent Education and Development Forum, the Global Talent Summit, the Global Youth Conference, the China and Globalization Forum, and the China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum.
Connecting China and Foreign Countries, Communicating with the World
In the post-pandemic era, amid significant global challenges and transformations, CCG actively engages with influential international figures, including ambassadors in China. We expand international exchange channels through think tank initiatives such as ambassador roundtable forums, collaborative seminars with embassies in China, and the establishment of ambassador roundtables within brand forums.
Distinguished participants, including Xie Zhenhua, China’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, Wu Hongbo, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on European Affairs, Liu Zhenmin, Wu Hailong, President of the China Public Diplomacy Association (CPDA), former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs/former Chinese ambassador to the European Union, Nicholas Burns, U.S. Ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo, EU Ambassador to China, as well as ambassadors representing more than 20 countries, experts, scholars, and representatives from Chinese and foreign enterprises, have shared invaluable insights and innovative proposals on cultural exchanges, global economic and trade cooperation, global climate governance, and China-EU collaboration.
CCG has also played host to numerous visits from ambassadors and embassy officials hailing from countries such as Italy, the U.S., France, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, the UK, Australia, and other countries, totaling 67 engagements. During these interactions, discussions have revolved around pressing global challenges and both international and domestic hot-button issues.
Prominent dignitaries and figures, including former Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho, former Austrian Prime Minister Wolfgang Schüssel, former Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha González, Singapore’s Minister of Communications and Information Josephine Teo, Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply Carlos Fávaro, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization Pascal Lamy alongside other national leaders, diplomats accredited to China, officials from international organizations, renowned global experts and scholars, representatives of multinational corporations, as well as delegation of U.S. young politicians, delegation of BusinessEurope, Sino-Israel Global Network & Academic Leadership (SIGNAL), delegation of Finnish industries, delegation of Duke University, and dlegation of the Our Hong Kong Foundation have all visited CCG.
CCG has fostered extensive international communication through a multifaceted approach, including over 30 livestream sessions on domestic and foreign platforms, 650 media interviews, the publication of more than 320 commentary articles, dissemination of over 700 emails, and coverage in more than 3,500 media reports. These efforts have garnered the attention of senior decision-makers and professionals across diverse fields on the international stage.
Engaging in Conversations with the Future, Advancing Alongside Youth
In 2023, CCG spearheaded six significant international youth exchange initiatives, bringing together over 20 experts from diverse fields and assembling more than 500 young participants hailing from over 40 countries. These gatherings facilitated offline dialogues on an array of vital topics, including climate change, cross-cultural interactions, comprehensive people’s democracy, innovation and entrepreneurship, youth-friendly urban environments, external urban exchanges, and international talent cultivation.
On the occasion of the second anniversary of President Xi Jinping’s reply letter to the Global Young Leaders Dialogue (GYLD) foreign youth representatives, at the 2023 GYLD annual forum, 10 international politicians and heads of international organizations sent messages, and many ambassadors to China, representatives of international organizations to China, and leaders of relevant departments delivered speeches on the spot; at the 2023 Munich Young Leaders (MYL) Annual Meeting in New Delhi, India, CCG representative had in-depth exchanges and dialogues with 49 outstanding young people from more than 20 countries; a delegation of U.S. young politicians and Congress staffers visited CCG and had discussions with CCG managers and researchers and members of the GYLD project; CCG Thought Corner reviewed COP28 from multiple perspectives, and many participants of the United Nations Climate Change Conference had interactive exchanges on how young people can better participate in global governance; 11 international young people from countries walked into the Beijing Municipal People’s Congress and grassroots communities, had close conversations with representatives of the Municipal People’s Congress and grassroots officials, and immersed themselves in the Chinese scene, making the whole-process people’s democracy real and tangible; at the 2023 Chengdu Global Youth Talent Conference, several ambassadors to China and international youth gathered at the Business & Innovation Centre for China-Europe Cooperation (CCEC), extending invitations to young people around the world; at the 2023 Global Youth Conference, CCG once again collaborated with Shandong Provincial People’s government to have released research reports at the opening ceremony, conducted keynote speeches, and organized the “Huanghewan Youth Economic Forum” and the “Global Youth Innovation and Entrepreneurship Forum.”
Focusing on future development and building a forward-looking vision
To celebrate its 15th anniversary, CCG held a series of forums and seminars, including the China and Globalization Forum, the China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum, the China Inbound-Outbound Forum, and the book launch and roundtable for Global Think Tanka 2.0. These events focused on international hot topics such as “Reframing US-China Bipolar Dynamics by Pluralizing into China-West Relations”, “Global Order at the Crossroads: Ways Forward”, “Trends in the Chinese Economy and Investment Strategies”, and “Development Path of Think Tanks in the New Era”. More than 500 guests, including many senior policy makers, diplomats stationed in China, representatives of international organizations, leading figures and senior research scholars of Chinese think tanks, industry leaders, and representatives of many domestic and foreign media, attended the event to exchange cutting-edge views on global trends and formulate solutions to global challenges.
By focusing on bringing together experts from various fields such as government, industry, academia, and research, CCG provides a communication platform that brings together diverse perspectives and innovative ideas, attracting ideas from all walks of life to blend here and contribute wisdom and strength to building a more inclusive and prosperous globalization process.
The Past is Just a Prologue, the Future is Full of Expectations
As we step into 2024, at a significant juncture in history, CCG, as a pioneering and proactive player in China’s evolving think tank landscape, remains committed to fulfilling the aspirations of our era. We will persist in furnishing intellectual backing for China’s trajectory in globalization, harness the capabilities of social think tanks to actively engage in people-to-people diplomacy, act as a conduit for communication between China and other nations, and offer our insights to help forge global consensus.
Wishing everyone a joyous and prosperous New Year in 2024!
To better address global challenges, efforts should be made to create more opportunities for young people to enhance dialogue and foster understanding, attendees at a Saturday forum in Beijing said.
“This is an era of challenges and opportunities,” said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization and former counselor to the State Council. He mentioned geopolitical conflicts, post-pandemic economic recovery, and climate change among the challenges young people face.
On International Youth Day, the annual “Global Young Leaders Dialogue” forum was held by the CCG, which saw the participation of approximately 150 international youths, experts and scholars, embassy representatives, international organization delegates and business leaders from nearly 30 countries and regions.
IIham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, wrote in a letter to the forum “the youth, a driving force of growth and prosperity in every country, is also a locomotive of global progress.”
Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister of Pakistan, said young people play a significant role in pushing their countries forward and addressing challenges.
“The strength and vitality of a nation rests in its young leaders. Young people are the agents of change. Blessed with unlimited curiosity and innovative genius, they have the will and confidence to take on challenges with resolve and determination, to transform their societies and world at large.”
Participating youth said with the rapid advancement of technology, audiovisual communication has become a bridge connecting diverse cultures, backgrounds and regions. Through these means, they can easily communicate with individuals from around the world to share their perspectives and experiences, thereby promoting cultural diversity and mutual understanding.
The participants said youth also represent future urban residents, offering a unique perspective on urban planning, design and sustainable development. They can contribute to the prosperity and progress of cities by engaging in community projects, innovation, entrepreneurship, and proposing sustainable development ideas.
“The fresh and individualistic lifestyles and values of young people are reshaping the urban spaces and architecture,” said Shuhei Aoyama, co-founder of B.L.U.E. Architecture Studio, a Silver Award winner at the 2016 Architecture Creation Awards.
Faced with the significant global challenge of climate change, young people can use education, innovation and action to convey the importance of sustainable lifestyles to society, inspiring broad awareness and action, according to attendees.
Olesia Ermakova, curator of SCOLAR Network Beijing Hub, shared her pursuit of a zero-waste lifestyle. She delivered her speech wearing clothes that had been upcycled from old garments.”By rejecting what we don’t need, we can better appreciate what we already have,” she said.
From China Daily, 2023-8-13
Editor’s Note:
Gao Zhikai (Gao), vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, recently appeared on Al Jazeera’s program “Inside Story” and had a fierce debate with an American scholar, during which he slammed the US’ false propositions in terms of the Taiwan question. What are the sophistries put forward by the American scholar about Taiwan? How high is the risk of a military conflict between China and the US? And what impacts will the 2024 election in Taiwan bring to the current cross-Straits situation? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Zixuan talked to Gao over these issues.
GT: In that TV program, what sophistry the American scholar has made on the Taiwan question? Is it a typical view in the West?
Gao: The Taiwan situation is fast becoming an exclusive issue between China and the US. The US has misled itself, its allies and many people in Taiwan about the real status of Taiwan. In my debate with June Teufel Dreyer and another panelist from Taiwan, the contrast is very sharp. June believed that the US only acknowledged the one-China principle and Taiwan being part of China in 1979, literally meaning that Taiwan can decide its future by its own means. The truth is that the PRC government is the sole legitimate government of China, so it is completely illogical for the US government to claim that they can defend Taiwan from the so-called invasion by the Chinese mainland.
What June presented is a false proposition. The US government’s position regarding Taiwan is a position of illogicality, illegitimacy, illegality and unsustainability. In recent years, the US has always said Taiwan is so important strategically and in semiconductor manufacturing so that it is considered more or less as a country. In terms of this false proposition, I emphasize that you can’t say you love California and the Silicon Valley is so important that you want to urge its independence from the US. No American would agree to that. So why should anyone in the US have the fantasies to believe that they can carve out Taiwan away from China?
Some people, like June, continue to argue that the status of Taiwan is not clear. I urged them to read the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Agreement, if anyone really believes in the international order post World War II and emphasizes the rules-based international relations, they need to agree with the unconditional surrender by the Japanese fascists, including the unconditional surrender of Taiwan back to China. No one should pretend that they don’t know this, or mislead themselves and the rest of the world.
I think we need to elaborate on all these details so that everyone in Taiwan will know that it will be completely futile for them to seek Taiwan independence, because it will be, ironically, a violation of the international law and the rules established by the unconditional surrender of the Japanese fascists in 1945.
GT: From former US house speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reckless visit to Taiwan to Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen’s “transit” through the US, what changes have happened in the Taiwan Straits situation?
Gao: My personal view is that the US right now suffers from distorted syndrome. The US has been traumatized by two nightmares created by itself. One is that China will surpass the US in the size of economy. The other is that China will become the next superpower to impose its political system, ideology and social values onto the US.
From the Chinese perspective, this is completely wrong. In the first place, China has legitimacy and right to develop its economy in a peaceful way. I would even say that any country which wants to deprive the Chinese people of their right to economic development will be guilty of the largest crime against humanity in human history. No one should be allowed to achieve their goal of derailing China’s peaceful development. In addition, either in the past, at present or in the future, China will not become a superpower and impose its wills and political system onto the other countries.
The US is confusing the two things. In the US, there is a fantasy called “Destined for War” between China and the US based on the Thucydides’s Trap theory produced by Graham Allison. All the wars analyzed by Allison, without exception, were conventional wars. China and the US are not only conventional powers, but also nuclear powers. It is completely unscientific to impose the conclusions by analyzing conventional wars onto China and the US. I firmly believe that war is not and should not be an option, and there should be inevitable peace between China and the US. The inevitability of peace doesn’t mean that China and the US should love each other, but means that the two countries should get along with each other despite all their differences.
As a matter of fact, the differences between China and the US should not be what divide them, it should be what unite them. Many people in Washington believe that if a war breaks out, the US will prevail against China. This is again dangerously false, because war between the two nuclear powers will soon get out of control and escalate from conventional war into nuclear war. That will be a holocaust to mankind as a whole.
GT: China’s State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang made a speech on Friday at the Lanting Forum in Shanghai, saying that both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one and the same China, and it is right and proper for China to uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity, those who play with fire on Taiwan will eventually get themselves burned. What do you think of this statement?
Gao: I think ever since he became the Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang has been increasingly clear in defining China’s position about Taiwan. It is the US and those separatists in Taiwan who want to change the status quo of cross-Straits relations. The US Congress has enacted many bills to hollow out the one-China policy, which is a direct violation of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
If anyone in Washington pretends not to understand the full meaning of what Foreign Minister Qin says about the wrongful and long-term violation by the US of the one-China policy, when the consequences are really created, no one should pretend to be an innocent party to the tragedy initiated by the US rather than by China.
GT: Some US officials and Western media frequently speculate a war between China and the US over the Taiwan question. How high is the risk of a military conflict between the two countries over Taiwan question?
Gao: The US right now believes in “having your cake and eating it”, because it still wants to maintain diplomatic relations with China while goes further and further in the direction of treating Taiwan as a sovereign state. It is ridiculous and ludicrous for the US to think about sending US troops to fight for Taiwan independence. First of all, it will be completely against the fundamental interests of the American people. By doing so, the US will cause a severance of diplomatic relations with China and offend the 1.4 billion people in China, is this in the American interest or against the American interest? I think the conclusion should be very self-evident.
Secondly, if war breaks out between China and the US, it will be a war to defend China’s sovereignty and to achieve China’s national unification. Whereas for the US, it will not be a war of justice because it is directly in violation of the commitments of the US to China.
Thirdly, ironically, if war does break out, anyone with some basic knowledge will conclude as I do. Taiwan is the only piece of Chinese territory not yet reunited, the violation of the one-China policy by the US will trigger the resurrection of the unfinished civil war.
The risk for the US is that if a war does break out, when the dust settles, the US may lose the war. Then what will be the global consequence for the US as a major power in the world? I don’t think decision makers in Washington really want to make such calculation that they eventually will lose everything, including their legitimacy as one of the greatest countries in the world.
GT: The US has gained geopolitical benefits by messing up Europe through the escalating Ukraine war. Some believe that the US is likely to do the same in Asia by dragging China into a war in the Taiwan Straits. What’s your take on this? Is the US only using Taiwan as a pawn? What does that mean for the people of Taiwan?
Gao: As I mentioned, if the US can’t wake up from this confused nightmare, they may conclude that the only way to prevent China from surpassing the US and prevent the US from losing its hegemony is to find a war against China. If anyone believes that they will gain material advantage out of a war like this, then they should be indulged in fantasy. It’s not real. Geopolitics doesn’t work that way, and military initiatives don’t work that way.
Now the US most likely wants to use those separatists in Taiwan in a proxy war. This is very dangerous. I truly believe that for two nuclear powers like China and the US, it will be clearly one of the worst fantasies that anyone can dream of if they want to promote a war between China and the US.
GT: Taiwan’s regional leader election will be held on January 13 2024. What impacts will it bring to the Taiwan Straits situation?
Gao: I hope people in Taiwan in the coming general election will think about peace and try to avoid a war. The war, if ever breaks out, will not be initiated by China, but will be initiated by the US and the Taiwan separatists. The choice, to a very large extent, is in the hands of the Taiwan voters. If they want to vote for those separatists and politicians, regardless of what China has been warning them again and again, then they will push Taiwan into an abyss.
If they want to have stability, prosperity and enhanced exchanges of all kinds between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, then they should vote for peace, that is, peaceful cross-Straits relations. If you take out the trade surplus in its trade with the Chinese mainland, Taiwan actually faces a huge trade deficit, so if China really wants to toughen up and do punitive measures against Taiwan, its economy will be depressed, share prices will tank, and living standards of Taiwanese may suffer.
However, the Chinese government doesn’t want to use this kind of economic leverage against people in Taiwan, because making the Taiwanese people to go through economic hardships is not what China desires. China’s retaliations against Taiwan are focused on those separatists and those leaders who disregard the mega trend in cross-Straits relations and violate peace and stability.
Therefore, I think the voters in Taiwan in 2024 will have a major opportunity to make their voices really known, and I hope people in Taiwan will make the right choice for peace and cooperation. Otherwise, if there is the only winner, it will be the US, because it will reap huge benefits by initiating a resurrected cold civil war between the Chinese mainland and China’s Taiwan province, which will result in huge losses to cross-Straits people. The US probably will just cheer that they pull this off, and the Chinese on the both sides of the Taiwan Straits will be fighting against each other rather than engaging each other in peace and promoting mutual prosperity.
From Global Times, 2023-4-25
At a time when global governance is polarized, France has remained a staunch supporter of multilateralism and has been dedicated to promoting multilateralism around the world. One of the multilateral mechanisms in France is the Paris Peace Forum (PPF), a platform that seeks to find multilateral solutions to global governance issues. The Forum was created in 2018 with the support of President Emmanuel Macron and the European Union.
Since China and France have been long-term partners in promoting multilateralism, a top-level engagement between the two countries will soon take place, as French President Macron is expected to arrive in Beijing on April 5, accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. At the advent of President Macron’s visit, Justin Vaïsse, Founder and Director-General of the Paris Peace Forum, was invited by Center for China & Globalization to give a speech on Tuesday on multilateralism and global governance.
Photo taken on April 4, 2023 shows Justin Vaïsse, Founder and Director-General of the Paris Peace Forum, giving a speech on global governance and multilateralism at the Center for China & Globalization (CGG) in Beijing. (Wang Jinhong/Guangming Picture)
In his speech, Vaïsse made five points on the future of global governance in a polarized world. He stated that first, there is a demand for more global rules, pushed by universal issues like climate change, disappearing biodiversity, dangerous pandemics, space governance, and rapid technological advancement. Second, competition among countries can be good if it is kept in check, as competition can push for faster development in different areas, such as in the space industry. Third, more often than not, competition among countries can become harmful and dangerous. Hence, they need to be regulated to avoid zero-sum situations. Fourth, the current global situation calls for leadership from the US, China, and Europe to form a triangular relationship to cooperate together. Finally, civil society must play a role in solving global problems, as inter-governmental cooperation by itself is limited and insufficient. He believes organizations that operate outside of governmental bodies, like the PPF, also have an important role to play in global cooperation.
Afterward, Vaïsse engaged in a discussion with CCG President, Wang Huiyao, to delve deeper into the topic of global governance. During the conversation, Vaïsse emphasized the significance of people-to-people contact in the post-COVID society, as it opens the door for deeper discussions among countries. This is anticipated in the meeting between Chinese President Xi and French President Macron, with discussions on the issues of the Ukraine crisis, space governance, climate change, and so forth. In addition, Vaïsse urged for “triangular discussions” between the US, China, and Europe to prevent potential conflicts. Since the current sentiment in Washington is strongly anti-China, he emphasized that the doors for conversation between China and the US must be kept open, and Europe can act as a balancing force between the two countries.
Photo taken on April 4, 2023 shows Justin Vaïsse in dialogue with Wang Huiyao, Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing. (Wang Jinhong/Guangming Picture)
Concluding the conversation, Vaïsse repeated that while the East and the West have their differences, it is necessary to “focus on cooperation”. Wang also insisted that Europe and China must take the initiative to communicate, and believed that the upcoming meeting between Chinese and French leaders will “be another big step in the right direction for improving China-EU relations, and stabilizing the world.”
Photo taken on April 4, 2023 shows Justin Vaïsse answering questions from the audience at the Center for China & Globalization (CGG) in Beijing. (Wang Jinhong/Guangming Picture)
From GMW.cn, 2023-4-4
Democracy is one of mankind’s greatest achievements. In 2019, China introduced the concept of “whole-process people’s democracy,” which not only means that people engage in democratic elections, but they’re also involved in consultations, decision-making, management and oversight. But how does that work in real life? How does China conduct consultative democracy at all levels? Why is consultation an important part of China’s democratic system?
Guests in this episode are Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization, who was also a former councilor to China’s State Council, and Dr. Victor Gao Zhikai, chair professor of Soochow University.
A week after the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party drew to a close, CGTN Europe assembled experts from different fields to discuss key messages about the direction the world’s most populous country is heading. In an exclusive conversation with China’s ambassador to the UK Zheng Zeguang, CGTN Europe explored what the idea that the world needs China for its development, really means in practice. The Ambassador is joined by a panel of experts including:
David Ferguson from the China International Publishing Group
Wang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization
Marc Ostwald, chief economist at AGM Investor Services
Stephen Perry, chairman of the 48 Club
Christoph Nedopil, director of the Green Finance and Development Center at Fanhai International School of Finance.
Yin Zhiguang, professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University
Stephen Lynch, managing director of the British Chamber of Commerce
Tim Clissold, China Expert & Author of “Mr. China”
From CGTN, 2022-11-1
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China provided a glimpse into China’s future. Xi Jinping delivered a much-awaited report that highlighted the word “modernization.” We take a closer look at that journey in China over the past decade and how it is linked with the rest of the world.
CGTN’s Special Forum on China’s modernization and the world invited guests to discuss the above topic, they are:
Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization,
Koffi M. Kouakou, Senior Research Fellow, University of Johannesburg,
John Milligan-Whyte, Executive Chair, America-China Partnership Foundation,
Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies, King’s College London,
Alessandro Golombiewski Teixeira, Fmr. Special Economic Adviser to the President of Brazil,
Xia Lu, Associate Professor, Renmin Univerisity of China.
From CGTN, 2022-10-30
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opened on Sunday in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping delivered a report in which he laid out the Party’s past work and outlined its future agenda. What were the key takeaways from the wide-ranging speech? What is China’s future development path under the leadership of the CPC?
Dialogue invited Jorge Heine, former Chilean ambassador to China, and Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization, to discuss this topic.
From CGTN, 2022-10-20
The 20th CPC National Congress, which will end on October 22, is an occasion to stimulate and unify the minds and hearts of the people. China is on the right track and has sent positive and open messages to the world.
By Wang Huiyao | Founder of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)
During the past decade, the country has achieved its goal of realizing a “moderately prosperous society”, which was defined in quantitative terms as a doubling of GDP and per capita income of urban and rural residents by 2020 as compared to 2010. By 2019, China had reached an annual GDP of 99 trillion yuan ($14.4 trillion) – already more than double the 2010 figure of 41.2 trillion ($6.37 trillion) – with a per capita GDP of $10,276.However, the nation’s economic development, though a bright spot, is not the sole focus of building a moderately prosperous society. Major breakthroughs have also been made in other areas. There has been a real improvement in the living standards of Chinese people, as reflected by the steady rise of various indicators. China’s rating on the Human Development Index (HDI) has increased from 0.49 in 1990 to around 0.76 in 2019, while life expectancy is also well above the global average, reaching 77.3 by 2019.
Despite the progress in the areas mentioned above, the CPC is also concerned with ensuring that development is balanced. Over China’s 40 years of reform and opening-up, it has lifted nearly more than 800 million people out of poverty, accounting for more than 75 percent of global poverty reduction during this time.
In the past three decades, global poverty alleviation has lagged far behind the pace of globalization, and rising inequality has been the main cause of the recent wave of anti-globalization. This is why China’s achievements in poverty alleviation is of global significance and has the potential to contribute to the continuation of globalization and further steps toward global poverty alleviation.
Aerial photo taken on June 14, 2020 shows a relocated area by the Gaqu River in Chido Township of Dengqen County in Qamdo, southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. (Photo/Xinhua)China has leveraged its system and policy advantages on the way to building a moderately prosperous society. The government has taken advantage of its strengths in infrastructure, industrial development, education, healthcare, and environmental protection to foster development.
China invested heavily in education, increasing the higher education gross enrollment rate from 30 percent in 2012 to 57.8 percent in 2021. As of 2021, China’s nationwide basic medical insurance program now covers more than 1.3 billion people and its basic pension insurance scheme covers nearly 1 billion people. China also guarantees compulsory education for school-age children and teenagers in accordance with the law.
Nonetheless, when evaluating the reasons behind these remarkable achievements, we cannot ignore the benefits that globalization and opening-up have brought to China’s economic development. Poverty has been reduced because of international trade. “Trade is better than aid,” as former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said.
Over the past four decades, multinational companies (MNCs) have invested in China, accounting for about half of the country’s import and export trade, almost 20 percent of tax revenue, and one-tenth of urban employment. They have not only fostered economic development, but also provided an enormous amount of employment opportunities in China.
Moreover, since China joined the WTO in 2001, China’s GDP has expanded more than tenfold. There are nearly 300 million rural migrant workers in China, and the income of migrant workers at MNCs, and their remittances sent home have become an important part of China’s economic growth. Continued opening-up has also advanced China’s technological innovation. In the 2010s, the digital economy and e-commerce connected China with the world and drove it into an era of mobile payment.
Photo taken on July 28, 2022 shows an intelligent quality testing all-in-one machine during the Global Digital Economy Conference 2022 at the China National Convention Center in Beijing, capital of China. (Photo/Xinhua)Over the next five to ten years, high-quality development is crucial for developing a model of modernization that benefits all of society. As mentioned in the work report delivered by President Xi to the 20th CPC National Congress, the market has played a decisive role in the economic development, but science, technology and talent are also important resources for high-quality development and will continue to provide China with considerable momentum. All these imply that China will introduce more innovative policies to attract global talent.
Talent innovation is also part of China’s rapid development. China has gradually become a top choice for global talent and entrepreneurship. From 1978 to 2019, the total number of Chinese students studying abroad reached over 6.5 million, and 86.28%, or some 4.2 million, have chosen to return to China after their studies.
According to the Global Innovation Index Ranking 2022, China’s ranking has risen rapidly to the 11th from 29th in 2015. China also ranked first in the world in terms of the total number of R&D personnel and the number of international patent applications with more than 69,000 submissions.
The global need for talent will become even stronger in the post-pandemic era, with countries scrambling to introduce new policies to attract talent. In order to ensure China is no longer limited to simple core technologies, it must make greater efforts to attract top international talents.
Today, China has strengths in attracting global talents in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and genetic engineering, and China must become more attractive to be competitive.
China has implemented many innovative policies to attract international talents in recent years, including the creation of an independent National Immigration Administration and adjusting its Green Card policy. However, we need to further improve supporting policies and create a more open and inclusive, convenient and livable social environment.
China can also provide greater policy incentives to attract the best international talents. The country has been providing a more open and equitable environment for international talents to work and start businesses, including easier visa application procedures, more accessible residency services, broader green card treatment, and an international living environment. Experience of Guangdong, as well as Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions (SARs) in reforming mechanisms for attracting talents can be replicated and promoted in other cities.
The GuangYue International Community in Guangzhou, south China’s Guangdong province. (Photo provided to GDToday)
China has made remarkable progress in the first hundred years since the CPC was established. Looking into the future, to achieve its second centenary goal – which is to build a modern socialist country by 2049, the Party will face a set of new challenges that need to be tackled, such as the middle-income trap, an aging population and achieving its carbon emissions targets. Therefore, further reform and opening-up are necessary and vital to the country’s future while tackling these new difficulties and striving for its second centenary goal.
Despite the current complex international environment, further integration into the world economy will not only advance the country’s strengths in technology and innovation, but more importantly, increase China’s soft power by creating a more peaceful, friendly and lovable image on the world stage. Ultimately, one of the most important and challenging tasks for China is to increase mutual understanding, receive global recognition and expand its circle of friends internationally – something that cannot be achieved through economic growth alone.
From GD Today, 2022-10-17
Stephen Sackur of BBC’s flagship program HARDtalk speaks to Henry Huiyao Wang , founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG). From China’s position on Ukrainian crisis and China-US relations, to its Covid-19 policy, the show explains the exchanges of views.
From BBC, 2022-6-24
It’s described as Asia’s premier security summit. Military officials and diplomats from more than 40 countries are meeting in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue. On Friday, a highly anticipated meeting took place between the Defense Ministers of China and the United States. CGTN’s Miro Lu begins our coverage with this report.
Joining the discussion:
Jim Walsh is a Senior Research Associate with the Security Studies Program at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Sourabh Gupta is a senior Asia-Pacific international relations policy specialist.
Einar Tangen is a political and economic affairs commentator.
Henry Wang is the Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization.
From CGTN, 2022-6-8
What does whole-process people’s democracy mean? How does democracy work in China? A group of international young people are invited to Beijing to find out these answers.
From Xinhua, 2022-4-17
Many countries’ ambassadors to China have expressed their views about and experiences in the country in a book that was released Tuesday.
China and the World in a Changing Context
Perspectives from Ambassadors to China
Editors: Huiyao Wang, Lu Miao
Published in March, 2022
ISBN: 978-981-16-8085-4
Publisher: Springer Nature Publishing Group
The book, China and the World in a Changing Context, brings together the insights of ambassadors to China on bilateral and multilateral issues such as trade and investment, regional economic integration, sustainable development, technological innovation and entrepreneurship.
This book is divided into three parts: mutually beneficial relations, facing global challenges together and creating a common future. Over 20 ambassadors attended a seminar launching the book in Beijing.
Wang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization and one of the book’s editor’s, said “a globalized world is a core component of the creation of a peaceful and sustainable world order that contributes to the mutual benefit of all mankind”.
This book seeks to create a balanced global perspective by gathering the views of highly influential policy scholars, practitioners and opinion leaders from China and around the world, he said.
Osman Rahamtalla, ambassador of the African Union to China, said the country, as a consistent partner of Africa and its member states, plays a key role in supporting the empowerment of youth in Africa through knowledge-sharing, entrepreneurship, culture and exchanges.
Luis Diego Monsalve, ambassador of Colombia to China, said the political and economic relationships between both countries have been full of challenges, adapting many times to the changing context of the world, but at the same time there have always been many opportunities.
“We have been working closely in many fields that are important for the development of each country to strengthen this true and lasting friendship,” he said.
From China Daily, 2022-3-16
Wang Huiyao is co-author of ‘Consensus or Conflict? China and Globalization in the 21st Century,’ along with Alistair Michie. Photo: AFP / Nicholas Kamm
He spoke with Asia Times editors via teleconference on October 8. Below is an edited transcript of the conversation. To read more on his book, click here.
Asia Times: First of all, tell us about your organization. Give us a bit more of a personal sense of the CCG, what it is and what your role is. And then tell us also a little bit about how this book came together and what prompted you to put it together.
Huiyao Wang: Dr Miao and I founded the Center for China Globalization about 13 years ago, which is when China actually opened more. We felt that globalization was really going to affect China, and maybe there should be a think tank to look at those issues regarding China and the relationship between China and the outside world.
Asia Times: In the 13 years that CCG has been operating, you have had a chance to meet many American scholars, think tank people and so forth. Do you have an impression of the Biden administration and its senior staff? I’m sure that you’ve been in contact with many of these people. How does China view the Biden administration? Are you hopeful that a dialogue with the Biden administration might lead to a better consensus?
Huiyao Wang: Absolutely, I do think so. Recent developments are really fascinating. I was at the Munich Security Conference last year, and I invited John Kerry to my roundtable. He was very straightforward and he’s really focusing on collaboration on climate change. And he has been twice to China already, the only senior official of the US who landed in China. There was a telephone conversation between President Xi and President Biden. And then in that conversation, it was said, “Let’s instruct our working level to meet and talk again.” We had USTR officials, Treasury and Commerce. Everybody is coming out to talk about China policy and we have the meeting of Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat, who met in Geneva just yesterday.
So I think there are some positive things going on. I think that the problem is that the Trump administration has [caused so much] damage. There’s already a bipartisan consensus on China. China is a scapegoat for everything that’s not going well in the US. The problem is that you have the midterm elections coming up next year and [Democrats] have only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and they are sensitive to this issue.
I think President Xi and President Biden know each other very well. They spent over 20 hours together, eight or nine meals together, traveled on planes together and talked together through only a single interpreter. If they meet again as scheduled at the end of the year, they’re going to meet virtually. At least they’re going to have a summit, a virtual meeting, rather than a telephone call.
You know that we have a new Japanese Prime Minister. The president just called him today.
So we hope that the situation can be stabilized a little bit. With respect to China, Madame Meng has been released from Canada. We got rid of this sole point that was poisoning the relationship. So I’m actually looking at a bit of stability under the Biden administration, compared to the destabilized situation during the Trump administration. But I can’t say, after President Biden, what’s next. I really hope the people in America will see that China is not a threat.
During a recent conference, I was talking to [Harvard Professor] Graham Allison, [Harvard Professor] Joseph Nye, [Financial Times columnist] Martin Wolf and [New York Times columnist] Thomas Friedman for two hours. They don’t think that we should have a Cold War. They think we shouldn’t decouple, and that view is already reflected in the Biden administration policy: No Cold War, no decoupling. We should really build up this consensus, work together. We would probably see some stability.
The structural problems are still there. But how we can manage the risk, how we can control that and not let it get out of hand, is really the most important. I think we will gradually accept each other – as Joseph Nye told me, by 2035-2050. We really need to manage our risk of conflict. And I think that’s the way to go. We can’t really totally converge. But we can peacefully coexist. We’re two different cultures. I think that the world probably can have a different model to coexist. It’s not the end of the world. So I hope for a kind of process that will take maybe one generation or two generations to get to understand and then finally accept each other. I hope, really, that we can exist peacefully together.
Asia Times: Many people have said that data is the fuel of the fourth industrial revolution. If artificial intelligence is the engine, then data is the fuel. China has enormous advantages in data in many fields – for example, medical. But there is a risk of data protectionism in the 21st century, just as we had oil protectionism in the 20th century.
Huiyao Wang: Data is the petroleum of the 21st century, and you really need to make it flow before you can do well. It’s just like capital, or talent. China is sitting on a gold mine of data. It has a billion smartphone users. It has the largest number and variety of applications because it has a large population, has larger geography. Parts of China can develop. Why can’t that be applied elsewhere? We have to really use that data for the purposes of mankind. This thing is still debated, philosophically, ethically and technically in many ways. We have to reach a conclusion on that. That’s the usefulness of a book like this. We have experts to talk about this, and we have to discuss it in China as well. For example, China last year issued eight rules on data flow and data protection. Those are good examples of how we can push the consensus forward.
Asia Times: Let’s take the pandemic and what has been learned. You know what China has learned with its very successful policy. Not everybody agrees with this zero-tolerance policy. All of that is based on a wealth of data that have been collected. There must be some way of sharing that right because ultimately the pandemic is a global phenomenon and dealing with it is a global matter.
Huiyao Wang: I think that’s a good question. China was struck by the peak of Covid-19 last year and developed this vast system, with quarantine, testing, and tracing. They developed all kinds of technology, and they used data as a very good tool to do that. So that shows how effective they can be if they use the data to single out any Covid-19 cases. Then they can quickly stop the spread.
This data approach, though, has been really widely used in China because China’s philosophy and Chinese culture support it. In China, people don’t really regard individual freedom or individual human rights as the top community interest. What is on top is the collective effort. For example, if I’m locked down, cannot go out, even if I lose my individual freedom, the whole society benefits from that. That’s why I think the data and technology are there but they may not work elsewhere. There are pros and cons to this approach, and there’s a balance in each society. In China, the government can do that because this society is very cooperative and people really have trust in the government.
The same data approach might not work in a Western society. The West views governance as a necessary evil and never, never really trusts it. China has had a collective society for 5,000 years. Despite what people think, it’s not a matter of the communist system. It’s a different philosophy, a different culture and a different mentality, in which some technology works well.
Asia Times: The United States seems to think that it can make up the rules and everyone has to abide by these rules. But China also has sometimes done that. It makes up a map and it says, OK, fine, this is our territory. But what international rules and regulations do we want? Where do we go with this?
Huiyao Wang: When we talk about the rules-based order, what was referred to is the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 and the founding of the United Nations. The World Bank, IMF, GATT – all those institutions were born at that time. The world has gone on like that for 75 years, but the parameters have greatly changed. Then China was a tiny percentage of global trade or global GDP, and now it has become the second-largest economy. The old rules-based order doesn’t reflect the new reality. So I think that is where we need to make some innovations, some updates. We’re not saying we’ve abandoned the order. We may say maybe we can upgrade or improve that. We have these new institutions like the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. These new institutions, which have a new global role, need new norms and new regulations. Another thing is the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership]. We need now the next generation of 21st century standards for trade and service rules.
Asia Times: The COP26 summit is coming up at the end of the month and the beginning of November in Glasgow. One of the challenges that we are facing is to deal with the climate issues, but at the same time, to do it in such a way that it does not destroy our political and economic structure. In China right now, you are sliding into an energy crisis perhaps because of some premature cutbacks on energy production.
Huiyao Wang: China said that it will reach peak carbon before 2030 and then carbon neutrality before 2060. On the one hand, you know, China is a developing country. You may say that China can’t do it. But China already realizes that it has enough smog. So they have cleaned up a lot of things. China is already now the largest clean-energy automobile producer, largest wind-power producer and largest hydropower producer. Environmental needs are pushing China to be more innovative and to spend more resources on those new technologies.
On the other hand, we have to follow the logic and the rhythm of development. China really has to cut down energy consumption per GDP unit. But of course, it’s a gradual process. And recently China has stopped building thermal power plants overseas, which is a huge commitment. But we will not jeopardize the economy. That’s the beauty of the Chinese system. If things go a little wrong, that government could switch back.
China never really has any big crisis because the government is very efficient and very effective in controlling those crises. So I think that system is really working well from some insider’s point of view.
Asia Times: Professor Phelps has written for Asia Times extensively, and he’s an economist whose ideas we follow closely. The emphasis in his contribution to your book is on indigenous innovation. He talks about the shift in focus from made-in-China to created-in-China. And he says this is essential to continuing growth and transformation. Of course, innovation is a very difficult thing to measure. I was wondering if CCG has done any studies on the state of indigenous innovation.
Huiyao Wang: Particularly after this trade war and the sanctions on Chinese companies, we’re really fortunate to do a lot of indigenous innovation. In the past companies thought they didn’t have to innovate because they could come by all the technology they needed from overseas. They thought that David Ricardo’s competitive advantage was really great and everyone should do what he does best.
Now this is a geopolitical decision for China to be more innovative. We have made enormous leaps. We went from having no phones to having smartphones. We have 4.7 million 4G stations, and almost one million 5G stations, and that’s supported a lot of innovation.
So we expect China to become more innovative, and to have more productive manufacturing as a result. It makes no sense to sanction China and no sense for China to retaliate with sanctions. I think we should really, really depend on each other and recognize everybody’s advantages and overcome disadvantages.
Asia Times: Dr Wang, thank you very much for this conversation.
By Wang Huiyao | Founder of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)As the United States and China are the world’s top two economies, their relations have global significance, with a major impact on the prospects for Chinese and US multinational enterprises and the world economy as well as the effectiveness of global governance.Responding to global challenges such as the climate crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, China and the United States need to work together to play a leadership role. The shared fundamental interests of China and the US mean the two sides should transcend the traditional framework of great power competition to build a new relationship of cooperation and competition, or “co-opetition”.In a recent phone call, President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden agreed to continue to maintain regular contact in various ways. Asia-Pacific stocks generally rose after the call, as markets welcomed the signal from China and the US that they would work to improve relations.China’s policy toward the US has remained relatively stable over the long term. China has consistently advocated win-win cooperation and mutual respect to build a nonconflict, nonconfrontational US-China relationship. Recent statements by Chinese leaders are a reflection and continuation of China’s long-term policy toward the US, indicating that Beijing still hopes bilateral ties will return to a rational and pragmatic state.
Not surprisingly, China and the US have different views on democracy and human rights, given the differences in their histories and cultures. It is crucial for the two to build mutual trust, seek and expand common interests, engage in extensive bilateral and multilateral international cooperation, and, most important, manage and handle differences and conflicts in a constructive manner.
First, both sides should maintain restraint on sensitive issues and avoid emotionally driven decision-making. China and the US undeniably are at odds over Hong Kong, Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. The US itself also faces pressing problems. The two sides can further communicate to reach a basic consensus on the bottom line of China-US relations by drawing basic red lines. They should also push for a new joint communique or related agreements.
Second, China, the US and the European Union can establish a coordination mechanism to enhance international coordination and global governance. The three parties can regularly have exchanges on issues such as international relations, climate change, prevention and control of COVID-19, and World Trade Organization reform via a permanent, institutionalized, multilevel and broad dialogue and cooperation mechanism. This will enhance mutual understanding, trust and cooperation among China, the US and Europe, and will improve the efficiency of global governance.
Third, the Belt and Road Initiative can be more inclusive and attract the participation of more developed countries. China can cooperate with the Blue Dot Network-an infrastructure-project certification mechanism launched by the US, Japan and Australia-the US-proposed Build Back Better World, or B3W, initiative and the EU’s Globally Connected Europe program. We can also sign third-party market cooperation documents with more countries to jointly expand third-party markets such as in Africa.
Fourth, we should enhance people-to-people exchanges between China and the US, especially Track II, or back-channel diplomacy, talks, to create a favorable public opinion atmosphere for the de-escalation of Sino-US tensions. When the pandemic becomes more controllable, China can consider easing visa applications for US students and welcome more foreigners to study in China.
Both sides should also relax restrictions on journalists and encourage the media to report objectively. Exchanges between US and Chinese think tanks should also be promoted, with Chinese and US academic leaders playing a leading role.
Fifth, we should work to promote the reopening of the US Consulate General in Chengdu, Sichuan province, and the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, Texas. The US and China have previously closed these consulates, marking the deteriorating relationship between the two sides.
It is perhaps inevitable that China and the US will compete, but this does not mean they have to clash. Both sides should seek to engage in more frank exchanges and constructive dialogue, which has been a mutual consensus among high-level officials.
This year marks the 50th anniversary of former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China, and this is an opportunity to reflect on and learn from the experience of the older generation of Chinese and US diplomats in handling US-China relations.
On issues such as Afghanistan, climate change, arms control, nuclear nonproliferation and public health, there is much room for cooperation.
The US and China can fully listen to each other’s concerns and seek to build mutual trust and respect.
Disputes should be set aside when necessary and cooperation prioritized. Decoupling is a road to nowhere. Both sides ought to learn from history to build a new narrative and mechanism for Sino-US relations and add more certainty to the peace and development of the world.
From China Daily, 2021-9-28
■ China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 reshaped the country and world trade, bringing great benefits to all
■ As the WTO opens a fresh chapter under new leadership, China is well placed to help rebuild the organisation for the post-pandemic world
World Trade Organization director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (left) arrives at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, on March 1. Photo: EPA-EFE
By Wang Huiyao | Founder of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)
Inside the concrete compound on the shores of Lake Geneva that houses the World Trade Organization is a colourful classical Chinese garden. Bearing elegant rock formations, arches and calligraphy, the Gusu Garden was a gift from China in 2013 to commemorate its entry into the WTO.
The garden also reflects China’s enduring commitment to the multilateral trading system, as China’s then-ambassador to the WTO, Yi Xiaozhun, said at the time. The Gusu Garden is far from the only mark China has left on the WTO, though.
This year marks 20 years since China joined the WTO as its 143rd member. This landmark event has transformed China over the past two decades and brought great benefits to the country.
But, equally, China’s accession has also changed the face of world trade and brought great benefits to the WTO and its members. Now, as the WTO opens a fresh chapter under new leadership, China is well placed to help the organisation rebuild itself to become the driving force of free trade for the post-pandemic world.
Given China’s place in today’s global economy, it is easy to forget the arduous process of overhauling its legacy command economy to join the WTO. Accession negotiations took 15 years, longer than those to form the organisation itself.
To adapt to WTO commitments, Beijing modified more than 2,300 national laws and regulations, while a further 190,000 were modified or cancelled at the local level. Trade-weighted average tariffs fell from 32.2 per cent in 1992 to 7.7 per cent by 2002, falling further to an average of 4.8 per cent between 2003 and 2017, according to the World Bank.
Institutions were reformed and China enhanced protection of intellectual property rights. This ongoing process has led to the creation of dedicated IP courts in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, as well as special judicial organs in 15 intermediate courts.
These changes opened China’s economy to the world and spurred a period of rapid growth. In 1999, China’s GDP was less than Italy’s and ranked only eighth in the world. Today, China is the world’s second-largest economy and its largest trading nation.
In the past 20 years, China’s exports have grown sevenfold and its imports sixfold. The country now accounts for 12 per cent of global trade and is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries.
Meanwhile, China’s share of global service exports has doubled from 3 per cent in 2005 to 6 per cent in 2020, while its share of service imports has grown from 3.3 per cent in 2005 to 8 per cent in 2020.
As trade has changed China, China has also changed the global economy. The country’s opening up and integration into the global economy coincided with the fall of trade barriers and costs associated with shipping and communications, facilitating the rise of global value chains. This has seen trade surge in the past 20 years and major benefits accrue to developed and developing countries alike.
In a recent round table on China’s two decades in the WTO, held by the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing, Yi – who recently completed his second term as WTO deputy director general – highlighted some of the ways the world economy has benefited during this time. For example, since joining the WTO, China’s average contribution to global growth has doubled to almost 30 per cent.
Affordable Chinese products have saved US consumers US$15 billion annually, and China has also absorbed a growing share of the world’s exports, including 25 per cent of exports from less-developed countries since 2008.
China’s crucial role in world trade came to the fore last year as Chinese exporters provided essential supplies at a time when other economies were severely disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
China has changed beyond recognition since it entered the WTO. During this time, the Centre William Rappard, which houses the WTO, has also been extensively remodelled and expanded to house new functions and make room for delegates from the WTO’s growing membership.
Unfortunately, the institution itself and the rules that govern world trade have barely changed in this period. This failure to adapt to important shifts in the global economy has caused tension and seriously weakened the organisation.
However, after reaching a nadir under the Trump administration as the WTO found its dispute settlement mechanism paralysed, hopes are rising that the organisation can reinvigorate itself under Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the new Nigerian director general who took over in March after the position had been vacant for six months.
As the world emerges from unprecedented health and economic crises, the WTO has a chance to prove its relevance. Successfully negotiating a vaccine waiver that would boost access for developing countries would give it a lift.
However, the long-term task of reforming the WTO remains fraught with difficulty. Okonjo-Iweala has already warned that some countries might try to weaponise WTO reform. As she has made clear, China is central to reforming the organisation.
Twenty years after accession, China is well placed to use its heft in the WTO constructively to help retool the organisation and revive the multilateral trade agenda for the post-pandemic era.
Eyes now turn back to Geneva, which later this year will host the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference. Delayed from last year because of the pandemic, it is perhaps the most important such meeting in recent history. Expectations are building that it will help re-establish the authority of the WTO in the global trade order.
If we are to see a rebirth of the WTO, then there is perhaps no more fitting place than the city where the WTO and so many other international organisations were born.
From SCMP.com, 2021-5-25
By Harvey Dzodin,a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).
This weekend saw the passing of one of China’s greatest modern heroes, agronomist Yuan Longping, at the age of 91. Yuan was loved in China, and his scientific breakthroughs in rice hybridization increased yields to help China and the world largely eliminate severe starvation.
China has a storied history of five millennia and during that time, dynasties rose and fell in large measure on whether leaders could deliver sufficient agricultural output to feed a large, hungry population. That challenge continued even after the founding of People’s Republic of China in 1949, but now has largely been eliminated, thanks to this one man’s efforts and the leadership of the Communist Party of China, as China has recently achieved its long-term goal of completely eliminating extreme poverty among its 1.4 billion people.
Growing up in Detroit, the world’s automobile capital in the 1950s and 60s, our parents always told us to eat all our food and never to waste it, as people in China and other parts of the world were starving and going to bed hungry. We didn’t know it then but it was true since at that exact time, there was a devastating famine in China in which many of people starved to death. Some people had to eat dirt and leaves to survive.
This Great Famine of China inspired Professor Yuan as a young agricultural specialist to do what at the time was considered impossible and that was to significantly increase the yield of rice, which has been the traditional staple food of China since time immemorial.
Professor Yuan and his colleagues have increased the rice yield almost four times by using hybridization pioneered in Austria by the 19th century father of genetics, Gregor Mendel. Yuan was nothing less than China’s miracle worker who helped China feed nearly one-fifth of the world’s population with less than 9 percent of usable land. And he never stopped working into the beginning of his 90s because he was driven by his passion to better feed China and the world.
Yuan Longping, known as China’s “father of hybrid rice,” inspects the new breed in the fields in Hekou Township in Xiangtan City, central China’s Hunan Province, September 29, 2017. /Xinhua
Interestingly, U.S. President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other U.S. leaders have a mantra that continually demonizes China for not participating in what they call the “rules-based international order.” But Professor Yuan was quietly toiling away for decades in the framework of that rules-based international order.
For example, he was the chief consultant to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In 1979, the same year the U.S. and China formalized bilateral relations, Professor Yuan’s technique for growing hybrid rice was introduced into the U.S. itself, making it the very first case of intellectual property transfer in China’s history.
Not only that but a famous economist claimed that professor Yuan’s work represented nothing less than a victory over the threat of global famine and that he himself had helped create a world with ample food. Indeed, numerous countries around the globe have now adopted Yuan’s hybrid rice and their well-being will be one of Yuan’s lasting legacies.
I had the privilege to meet Professor Yuan in Changsha in Hunan Province a few years ago. On that day, the auditorium was full of important people including local and provincial government officials as well as ambassadors from diverse leading countries. Yuan’s talk was inspiring.
Of all those important people there, none was more humble, accomplished or consequential than octogenarian Yuan Longping. Many Chinese people cried when they heard the news of Professor Yuan’s passing as such was his impact on them, on China and on the world.
Professor Yuan has shown us that in our modern era, it’s still the case that one person, even one with such a humble background as this farmer’s son, can still make a difference. In a recent poll, many young people in China said that they wanted to be astronauts, but I hope that the attention paid to this great and humble man on his passing at age 91 will inspire young people in China and abroad to know that it’s still possible for one dedicated person to change the world.
Four asteroids have been named after Yuan Longping, proving that his work is truly out of this world!
The build up to the 2021 Munich Security Conference (MSC) has officially begun, with some of the world’s top policymakers and leaders taking part in an online event on Friday. The 57th MSC was supposed to take place in the German city this month, but the pandemic has forced organizers to push it back to a later date.
In its place is a special broadcast edition called “Road to Munich 2021,” featuring high-profile speakers such as the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. CGTN’s Cen Ziyuan speaks to Miao Lu, co-founder of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing. The young scholar asked the UN secretary-general about the global response to COVID-19 and what it means for developing countries. Let’s hear what they said.
From CGTN, 2021-2-21
Supporters of US President Donald Trump cover their faces to protect from tear gas during a clash with police officers in front of the US Capitol Building in Washington, Jan 6, 2021. [Photo/Agencies]
By Mario Cavolo,a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).
Is what we have witnessed with the storming of the Capitol building by President Donald Trump’s supporters a betrayal of their country? Was it an insurrection, threatening the end of the American values of freedom and democracy?
While distasteful and controversial, even tragic with the deaths that have occurred, let us step back to consider these difficult days with much needed wisdom and a clear understanding of the underlying facts.
I must remind us all the assault on the genuine true ideals of freedom and democracy, the American experiment and its many admirable achievements began decades ago leading to why Trump was elected in 2016 in the first place.
He was elected to clean the house, to quell the norms tilted in enormous favor of the elites in a liberal democracy that has clearly failed the American people. The Atlantic magazine couldn’t have been clearer, “America is acting like a failed state.”
We are all deeply concerned about America, wishing America to be prosperous and harmonious, much as today’s China is remarkably so. China has learned a lot from the West and there are still important lessons to learn from one another. This is a crucial understanding in considering our global future together.
What is the betrayal of a country, the needs and interests of its people? Step back to the early 1990s and ask did then President Bill Clinton betray the American people when he repealed the Glass-Steagall Act? This and related events allowed the banks to engage at the time in the financial fraud of the century while clearly neglecting and abusing the country’s middle class.
We have a state of affairs where the political establishment simply did not do its job with both sides of the aisle to blame, no matter Trump’s status as a controversial lightning rod.
The current climate includes calls against Trump because of the violence that has occurred. Indeed, it is highly offensive and tragic. No one supports violence to solve problems, it never works as intended, it is a stain on humanity because violence always begets more violence. Yet even on this point, the hypocrisy of many Western leaders and media is unmistakable.
For example, let’s take a moment to discuss the pivotal and hypocritical position Facebook finds itself in and compare it to an even worse story of violence and how Facebook responded.
CNN’s Brian Stelter reported immediately after the Capitol riots that Facebook has chosen to suspend the account of President Trump.
Why Mr. Stelter stated, “Facebook…is afraid that the outgoing President will use their platforms to continue to incite violence and riots…We are seeing corporate America take extraordinary steps to try to protect the public from the president.”
You might heartily agree with Brian Stelter, and here in China? Let me tell you friends, we definitely agree. Limiting extreme speech and keeping society stable for everyone is a top priority in governance here.
But wait, why isn’t Facebook operating in China anymore? The real reason Facebook was banned? Facebook was blocked following the July 2009 Urumqi riots because terrorists of the al-Qaeda-affiliated East Turkestan Islamic Movement who violently killed nearly 200 innocent civilians in Xinjiang were using Facebook to communicate, to incite murderous terrorist violence. Isn’t that obviously a reason to ban them from Facebook?
And yet, when the Chinese government asked Facebook for cooperation and information, and to delete their pages, Facebook refused.
Another glaring example of hypocrisy, incoming President Joe Biden roundly rejects violence and calls for unity. Yet when referring to the extremely violent and repeated Black Lives Matter protests this past summer including destruction of property, looting of stores and assault on innocent people, Biden and his leftist allies were silent.
You probably don’t need me to also remind you that when the same violence occurred for months on end in Hong Kong, lovers of freedom and democracy were silent.
Why is this maddening chaos and decline really upon us? What is the simple magic missing ingredient? When those in power promise “What’s best for the American people,” they don’t mean it and they don’t actually care one bit. Their shameful lip service has created a society with socialism and bailouts for the elites, while the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness for the common people is met with greater burden and a vanishing opportunities to do so.
Make no mistake, that is America’s core domestic threat to returning much needed unity back to American families and society, back to American soil and back to cooperation as a global partner.
From China Daily , 2021-1-13
A leading Chinese economist shared his observations on Tuesday with foreign ambassadors on the key issues of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan as the country undergoes vast socioeconomic changes amid a volatile geopolitical situation.
Zhu Min, chair of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University, explains China’s 14th Five-Year Plan to foreign ambassadors at a roundtable discussion in Beijing, Dec. 8, 2020. [Photo courtesy of Center for China and Globalization]
A leading Chinese economist shared his observations on Tuesday with foreign ambassadors on the key issues of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan as the country undergoes vast socioeconomic changes amid a volatile geopolitical situation.
Zhu Min, chair of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University, shared his thought with ambassadors, senior diplomats, and entrepreneurs during a roundtable discussion organized by the Beijing based think tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG).
“While working on its 14th Five-Year Plan, China has remained committed to opening-up, and is working with all countries and partners to promote global governance and shared prosperity,” said Zhu.
As the former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund and former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhu explained that China’s economic strategy over the next five years will place greater emphasis on five aspects: high-quality growth, a people-centered approach, the “dual circulation” strategy, green development, as well as technology and digitalization.
Multifaceted approach
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s per capita GDP in 2019 reached US$10,276 at the average exchange rate. As the country moves toward becoming a high-income economy, Zhu believes that more efforts should be made to strike a balance between rising incomes and people’s sense of gain and happiness.
As such, Zhu called for improving the availability of China’s social health insurance scheme and strengthening environmental protection efforts. He also urged finance agencies to take action to address people’s need for wealth management.
With regard to the newly proposed “dual circulation” concept, Zhu explained that the strategy is designed to ensure the effective and stable operation of the domestic supply chain, while continuing to cooperate with the rest of the world on resources, technologies, talents, capital flow, and management capacities.
Zhu stressed that the interaction between domestic and international markets will play a crucial role in facilitating China’s technological upgrading, and further help domestic products move into the value chain.
“We expect to see huge improvements of efficiency in both domestic and international markets,” he added.
On the green development side, China vowed this year to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Zhu explained that these goals play a major role in the country’s new five-year plan as they put strict requirements on China’s energy structure and efficiency, while providing tremendous opportunities for global investment.
Zhu added that China is accelerating its efforts to improve technological development through 5G, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud services. Meanwhile, more support from technological institutions is expected to be put in place for Chinese companies.
Committed to opening-up
During a CPC press conference on Oct. 30, it was noted that China should further open-up and expand market entry for foreign-invested enterprises to better utilize resources from both domestic and international markets. This notion has been constantly reinforced in the 14th Five-Year Plan.
With more free trade zones emerging across China, the country’s imports and exports are expected to grow further, and international cooperation in this regard will be strengthened, Zhu said.
The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), for example, demonstrates global progress being made on openness and cooperation. Zhu believes that the partnership will promote the flow of capital, and help further facilitate the exchange on trade, technologies and services.
In addition, Zhu affirmed that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will proceed in the infrastructure and industry sector, and help improve communication and exchanges using digitalization means between BRI countries.
“China is working with other countries to carry forward the reform efforts of global economic governance and financial institutions,” Zhu explained. “China is also committed to combating the pandemic, especially in the manufacturing and distribution of vaccines.”
“The five-year plan addresses the key challenges China is facing and helps China move toward becoming a much more sustainable and high-income country,” Zhu concluded.
From China.org.cn,2020-12-10
A leading Chinese economic expert on Tuesday identified structural change, geopolitical risk and an aging society as key challenges for the country over the coming 30 years.
Speaking at an ambassadors’ roundtable organized by the Center for China & Globalization in Beijing, Zhu Min, a former vice president of the People’s Bank of China, said the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) factored in the three issues.
The challenges
Zhu, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said a “dramatic increase in geopolitical risk” was an important factor under consideration when China drew up its 14th FYP, and noted the succession of U.S. withdrawals from international bodies and pacts under the Trump administration.
“When ‘decoupling’ becomes a political buzzword in the international community, it also causes concerns, because China is such an open, globalized economy… if decoupling happened, what would be the picture, what would be the solution? We don’t want this to happen, but we have to think about it carefully.”
Pressed later by ambassadors to China participating in the roundtable event, the 68-year-old said increased dialogue between China and the United States “has become an urgent issue” for the sake of global development, given the fallout from the pandemic and the economic difficulties across the world.
Structural change is also a key issue for China. It is heading towards becoming a high-income country, Zhu said, but the next step is extremely challenging. Per capita GDP reached $10,000 for the first time this year, edging towards the World Bank high-income country threshold of $12,535.
However, the president of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University warned this was a critical juncture.
Moving from the $10,000 level to high-income was extremely challenging for developing countries, many of which fell into the middle-income trap. “Historical and international experience tell us, when a country moves from middle-income to high-income levels, the country will experience huge structural change.”
Zhu cautioned that “economic structural change is a big issue at this critical moment,” adding that examples from around the world suggested that agile and effective macroeconomic policy management was important.
Major structural change is underway in China, with a gradual shift away from manufacturing and towards services. Zhu said the country’s manufacturing sector peaked in 2013 and services would continue to grow over the coming years.
Demographic shifts are also an issue China must adapt to over the coming years. Zhu said China now has 250 million people over the age of 60, and over the coming years age bands over 60 are expected to see net increases in numbers while groups below 60 will lose population size.
“That is a big issue for us today to think about. Labor supply is obviously a big issue, social welfare systems, security systems, healthcare systems. And how can we build more livable conditions, in housing, in communities, in cities, highways and parks, to suit this more aging population.”
The shift will also require an economic shift, he said, because older people consume less physical goods but require more services. “Aging will have a huge impact on economic structure… also on social policy, (and) on city and community design as well.”
CCG Ambassadors’ Roundtable, Beijing, December 8, 2020. /CGTN
Features of FYP
Zhu later picked out key features of the 14th FYP, highlighting its focus on high-quality growth ahead of a high growth rate and its people-centric approach, noting the rapidly growing Chinese middle class.
The economist said China’s middle class has expanded from around 100 million 10 years ago to 400 million today and could double again, adding that in response the financial sector would have to change to offer effective management of finances for more people as they have greater wealth.
The economist also emphasized the importance of “dual circulation,” one of the central planks of the 14th FYP, explaining that it fundamentally required the domestic economy to circulate well. He noted that supply chains within China are not always smooth, adding there are big opportunities for increased efficiency.
However, he stressed that this did not mean isolated domestic circulation. “China needs international cooperation and China needs many things from the international markets,” he said, adding that competition from around the world can spur Chinese companies forward.
“The interaction between the domestic market and international market will play a very important role, to stimulate and to push China’s technology and advancement and upgrading and products, moving up the value chain.”
Zhu also described the plan to transition China to clean energy by 2060 as a huge challenge but also an opportunity for increased investment and increased efficiency. It will lead to major structural changes in the energy sector as well as industries such as auto, he said, as the country transitions to electric cars.
Energy efficiency is a big opportunity for China over the coming years, he added, in terms of investment, innovation and global cooperation.
Zhu added that technological innovation and digitalization are also key aspects of the FYP, noting the focus on 5G, AI, big data and clouds. As tech infrastructure is built and advanced, he said, digitalization of more aspects of our lives will follow.
The economist added that while working on the 14th FYP plan, China had thought carefully about global governance issues over the coming years. The country will continue to open up and employ high standards, he said.
Zhu described the recent signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as a “big deal,” adding that in terms of raised standards the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the ongoing negotiations over a China-EU investment deal and a move towards common standards via the Belt and Road Initiative could be hugely consequential.
Former Director-General of WTO identifies four key issues in need of urgent attention in the international trading system: environment, digital trade, economic security, and subsidization.
Hi, this is Jia Yuxuan in Beijing. On December 13 afternoon, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) hosted Mr. Pascal Lamy, the visiting former Director-General of WTO. Mr. Lamy delivered a keynote speech on the shifting landscape of international trade in the era of re-globalization. After that, he engaged in a dialogue with Henry Huiyao Wang, President of CCG, and interacted with Chinese trade experts.
The video of the entire event has been published on the Chinese internet via CCG’s official WeChat account, and will be posted on YouTube at a later time. CCG also broadcast the speech via a range of social media channels, including Baidu, Bilibli, Guancha.cn, Kuaishou, and Weibo.
Given the space limit of an email, however, we are only publishing Mr. Lamy’s keynote speech today.
Mr. Lamy believes that the three historical drivers of globalization—technology, ideology, and peace—remain influential, albeit in shifting dynamics. Technology continues to drive globalization, but ideological shifts regarding trade’s impact on security and the rise of geopolitical tensions, like the U.S.-China rivalry, are reshaping the global landscape.
Mr. Lamy highlights four key areas for reform in the international trade system: environment, digitalization, economic security, and subsidization. He highlights the challenges in aligning trade and climate goals, as trade has norms and no target, and climate has a target and no norms. He also notes that, regarding the issue of subsidization, with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the U.S. has turned Chinese, subsidizing their industry as much as China used to do it.
Mr. Lamy sees limited potential for progress through negotiations alone regarding the 400 billion Euros trade deficit from the EU to China. Nonetheless, he remains hopeful about the prospects for EU-China cooperation in the above four key areas.
So ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Many thanks to my good friend, Henry Wang, and glad to be back in the presence of the CCG, with which I’ve had a long-standing working relationship, unfortunately, online since December 2019, which is why I’m extremely glad to be back here. But in the meantime, CCG has grown. It’s much bigger than it was last time. So congratulations for that.
You’ve saddened me with an incredibly huge topic for a 15-minute talk, which is “re-imagining the international trade system in times of re-globalization”. But I’ll try to remain within my time limit, starting with some nuances I would have on the notion of re-globalization. I know it’s an invention ofNgozi Okonjo-Iweala, which I like a lot, so I will not disagree a priori with an excellent DG of WTO. But it might imply that we are de-globalizing and that we should have to re-globalize. And if this is the concept, I don’t agree with this concept, because I don’t agree that we are de-globalizing.
I agree that globalization is changing and that if re-globalizing means moving to a different kind of globalization, I agree; but not if re-globalization means moving back from globalization and then because of that, back to globalization. We are living in a time of change in globalization, a big inflection that we are witnessing.
The old globalization was powered by three major engines, technology, ideology, and peace. And these three engines were pulling globalization together. They were all aligned to pull the period. We have known roughly from the 1970s or 80s to roughly 2010. We now are in a quite different period in which the three engines do not work the way they worked previously.
Technology keeps pushing globalization. This world is interconnected, and more and more every day. So there is a huge potential for further globalization, notably in services with digitalization.
Ideologyis not today what it was 20 years ago. Today, 20 years ago, there was a sort of ideological consensus that opening trade was the way to go, because of the merits of international division of labor, specialization, multi-localization of production systems, spanning the planet with global supply chains. The consensus at the time was that that was the way to go, and that obstacles to trade, either existing or to come, were to be addressed and reduced.
This has changed. In today’s ideological picture, the relationship to trade is much more mixed. You hear people saying trade should be reduced for reasons of national security. And you hear people saying trade should be reduced for reasons of social security. And you hear people saying trade should be reduced for reasons of environmental security. So the ideological landscape has shifted.
As far as peace is concerned, I think we don’t need a long demonstration to show that this world is not in peace. Not only is it not in peace, it never was really in full peace. But there was no real big fight, battle, war as the one Russia started by invading Ukraine, or as the one which Hamas started in attacking Israel. Although so far, this has not resulted in a full-blown war in the Middle East, we know that the ingredients of that may be there.
So we now are in a world where wars are multiplying and expanding, and this is within a context which has gone worse for the last 20 years, every time—hopefully for the moment stabilized—which is the US-China rivalry. And this of course has a lot of bearing on both the geoeconomics and the geopolitics of this planet.
So we are in a different phase of globalization. Trade keeps growing. We’ve had record volumes of trade in 2022 by the statistics.
True, there are some elements of fragmentation. You can see that in investment flows. Way before the war in Ukraine, the U.S. investment in China had dropped, when roughly from 20 billion a year in 2010 to 8 billion in 2020. So in 10 years, it moved down same for EU investment in China, and the same for Chinese investment in the U.S. or EU.
So if investment is a precursor of trade, there were signals that already before this major tectonic geopolitical development that the war in Ukraine triggered, some elements were there. But these elements coexist with an increase of trade.
So we have both the volumes of trade growing, which is an element of globalization and some elements of fragmentation. What this will mean for the future, in my view, is unclear, although overall, if I look at these three engines, technology, ideology, and peace or geopolitical tensions or conflicts, I still believe that these engines will keep pushing for globalization.
Now, what does this mean for the international trading system?
Agreements are becoming much more difficult because of this polarization. Not just East-West between the U.S. and China, but also North-South. If you look at the votes at the General Assembly of the UN about Ukraine, or about Palestine and Israel, you can see that this world is now emotionally divided into two camps, in the case of Ukraine: those who buy the narrative of Putin, that NATO was strangling Russia, and that Russia had to intervene in order to be not strangled in the future, which in my view is total nuts. But some people believe this, and I have to recognize this. These people believe this, and it’s exactly the same with Hamas and Israel. A lot of people on this planet believe Israel is a colonizer. This is not my view, but I have to recognize that emotionally a lot of people see things very differently than we Europeans.
So this ambiance is not conducive to proper international cooperative arrangements. And there are many reasons for that. The legacy of colonization is visioned by many emerging countries that the international system is not fit for purpose. According to today’s relative power distribution and the way we handled COVID, which in my way, and I coined this phrase, was a sort of vaccine apartheid, which I deeply regret. And many other issues are creating a sort of frustration, which Ukraine or Palestine are inflating.
This being said, we need the international trading system to address a few issues, most of them it has not properly addressed in recent times, and some of them being new. And I will mention four of these issues, which in my view, are the correct answers to Henry Wang’s question. The first one is trade and environment. The second one is trade and digital. The third one is economic security. And the fourth one is subsidization.
Now, ontrade and climate, I have to remain short. I spent a week in Dubai last week talking about this and other topics. We have a big problem in that the world trading system and the world climate systems are totally different. On trade, we have norms and no target, and on climate, we have a target and no norms.
In the WTO, nobody says trade should be open 60% or 80%, or even 100%. No, we just have rules of behavior that slowly reduce obstacles to trade in a fairly negotiated way. The fact that it is fairly negotiated is proven by the fact that countries agree to it.
On the climate side, it’s exactly the other way around. We have a target, which is zero carbon, which is great. I’m all in favor of that because I’ve chaired the Climate Overshoot Commission for two years and I now know what global warming really means and what we should do in order to address it. But the way we do it is left to nationally determined contributions.
So WTO works with multilaterally determined contributions and climate works with nationally determined contributions.As a result, you have a mess in trade. We Europeans price carbon, big way. But the moment you price carbon seriously, trading with countries where the price of carbon is extremely low is a big problem. If you do that, you just incentivize carbon leakage. Producers within your constituency will move outside and emit carbon elsewhere. So the more you fight carbon in your constituency, the more you trigger more leakage and more carbon emissions elsewhere. So it makes no sense, which is why the EU now needs the CBAM.
The U.S. doesn’t like pricing carbon, so they do it with subsidization, so they can print a dollar as much as they want. And in doing this, we Europeans create a trade obstacle at our border, with our Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and the US creates a trade obstacle in totally delivering the playing field with their massive subsidization system to green their economy. And this has trade consequences which need to be addressed.
So we need the WTO to intervene. We need WTO members to sit around the table and discuss: I’m doing it this way, you are doing it that way, let me understand why you do it this way, I will explain why I do it this way, and at some stage, we will have to find something which is reasonably compatible. And in order for it to be compatible, it has to be comparable. And just the way of making these climate-related trade measures compatible is a big thing that I think needs to be done urgently. Otherwise, it will slow decarbonization. These trade frictions, if we don’t address them, will slow something that we are already way too slow to address.
Digital trade is in a bit of a better shape. There has been a negotiation for now quite a number of years. There is a digital trade facilitation package on the table, and my view is that the next ministerial conference should pocket what’s on the table and stop discussing maybe we could do this, plus this, plus this. There is a good base on the table in present circumstances. If you have a good base on the table, pocket it and then move from there. And this, in my view, is something which is relatively doable now.
Economic security is of course in this context which I briefly described, also a big problem. Mr. Trump pretends that exports of steel from Europe to the U.S. are a threat to U.S. security. Nuts. Total nuts. But for a variety of reasons, the EU decided, and I disagree with that, that this case should not be brought to the WTO.
Whether EU or U.S. export restrictions to China on the grounds of national security are or are not justified is an open question. We know that there is a security exception in the charter of WTO. We know that this has already been litigated. So the WTO can adjudicate a dispute about economic security.
But I believe that even when the dispute settlement of WTO is…given that the U.S. are on strike, something should be done by the members of the WTO to give some sort of guiding interpretation of what economic security can do. I totally agree that sovereigns need a margin of manoeuvre which is their sovereignty and does not have to be appreciated by whatever judge in WTO on grounds of national security. But this, on the other side, cannot be a blanket exemption. You cannot do anything just by waving your flag of national security. This would destroy the multilateral trading system. So we have an issue there which I think necessitates better attention.
And finally, subsidization, which is not a new issue. China knows that full well. The problem is that with the IRA, the U.S. have turned Chinese. They now subsidize their industry as much as China used to do it, after having, by the way, complained in the past that China was too heavily subsidizing its industry, which is absolutely true, hence the level of capacities that we now have in the Chinese economic system.
So that would be my sort of four priorities–trade priorities, of course, related to other issues. And finally, for my few last minutes, what could the EU and China do to move this forward?
I think the overall answer is not much, given the state of relationship between the EU and China, which has seriously deteriorated. The main reason why it has deteriorated is the war in Ukraine. We Europeans do not understand why China sides with Russia. China did not recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. So China probably does not like a country invading or seizing the territory of another country.
So why is China siding with Mr. Putin? The interpretation can only be that Mr. Putin is against the U.S. and Europe, so China is moving with Mr. Putin because it is against the U.S. and Europe, which then in Europe creates a conception that China does not like us and is against the U.S. and Europe. And by the way, putting the US and Europe in the same bag, which in my view, is a large over-interpretation of the situation. So the politics for the moment are bad and it’s very difficult to have proper economic discussions in such a political context.
And the economics are not good either. The growth in Europe is low, too low, for Europe (in the) medium term to adorn its Soziale Marktwirtschaft system. And the Chinese economy is not, in my view, in good shape. And the structural characteristics of the Chinese economy—which is the over-presence of the state-owned system—that leads to a number of production capacities not abiding to market rules, hence these over capacities with the sub-consumption in China. If you compare China to other developing countries of the same range, the saving rate of the Chinese people is way too low, which is why their consumption is way too high. And this structural problem is at the origin of our trade problem.
A 400 billion trade deficit is not a trade problem. It’s a macroeconomic problem that needs to be addressed macroeconomically. It’s not in twisting…I mean, of course, trade negotiators can do their job. They will do their job. If they do properly their job on these 400 billion deficits, maybe, at their best, they will address 100 billion. China would open more its services market and the EU would re-balance part of the problems she has in a number of respects. But this will not shrink the 400 billion. The 400 billion are there for other reasons, as, by the way, the U.S. massive and permanent trade deficit is there for macroeconomic reasons, which is that the U.S. consume too much and save not enough.
So this is a difficult situation, which I think we need to recognize. And on this side, the EU is not yet seen by China as a proper geopolitical interlocutor. China still is unsure whether in the future, EU will remain a proper economic integration process or whether at some stage, the dreams of Europeans that they will become a sort of full-fledged both geoeconomic and geopolitical power will be fulfilled or not. So China is very careful about this, carefully playing some of its cards with the member states, and some of its cards with the EU institution.
And as long as we Europeans remain in this situation, I can understand why China will be cautious and why some in China still will believe that the EU is an American poodle and that in these conditions we’d better be careful with what we do. We have a problem also on our side which we need to address.
This being said, and that’s my final point, there is ample room for the EU and China looking, for instance, at the four topics I suggested—environment, digitalization, economic security, and subsidization—and in moving more together in moving these issues into the trading system. So there is room for that.
The context is not propitious, but state men and state women are there to address including negotiation or discussion in a context which is not favorable. What would be my recommendation is that on both sides, these issues are taken, recognizing that the environment for the moment is not right, but that sometimes it’s the deal you make when the environment is not right that contributes to change the environment and that’s what I wish.