Zhou Xiaoming: Appeasement of U.S. Shoots Europe in Foot
November 29 , 2024
By Zhou Xiaoming | Senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), Former Deputy Permanent Representative of China’s Mission to the UN Office in Geneva.
History, it seems, has a way of repeating itself. In 1938, as Hitler was expanding German territory by annexing Austria after his forces entered the Rhineland, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, to avoid war, agreed that Germany could occupy the Sudetenland if only the Nazis would stop there.
Appeasement of similar nature was in the air as the European Commission tried to formulate the EU’s response to Donald Trump’s campaign promise to slap 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all goods coming into the United States. This would cut $150 billion annually out of the EU’s exports to America. In a bid to avoid the tariffs, the proposed EU game plan calls for working closer with Washington in confronting China. Put another way, it’s selling out China to gain Trump’s favor, as well as an attack on an indispensable ally in some of the bloc’s cherished endeavors.
For starters, the proposed collaboration of Brussels with Washington, would impair China’s ability to contribute to the global fight against climate change, a top priority of Europe. As climate change accelerates, with devastating consequences for mankind, Trump is expected to take the United States out of the Paris accord again. He is also likely to push for a major ramp-up of oil and gas exploration within the United States and roll back environmental protections.
The world needs all the support it can get, both financial and technological, when it comes to climate change, and China’s role in meeting the goals of the Paris agreement is indispensable. In this context, containing China would deal a major blow to global climate action. Would the European bloc be willing or able to pick up the slack that would result from China’s reduced capacity to tackle climate change? Apparently, if the EU cares about the issue as much as it claims, the only right thing to do is to align with China, which is a major contributor in the global transition to green energy.
The EU also needs China to help safeguard the multilateral trading system. European bloc countries rely on international trade more than anyone, and more than 80 percent of their growth is expected to come from outside. The stable and predictable trading environment provided by the World Trade Organization is, therefore, critical to the EU’s prosperity.
Trump’s promise to slap 10 to 20 percent tariffs on imports from the rest of the world (a minimum of 60 percent for Chinese goods) is, in the words of Pascal Lamy, the EU’s former trade commissioner and former director-general of the WTO, a “total breach” of America’s commitments to the WTO and thrusts a dagger into the heart of the organization.
Donald Trump is no fan of the WTO. In his first term, he crippled the appellate body of the WTO’s dispute settlement system and threatened to pull the U.S. out entirely. He would probably follow through on that threat this time around. There is a real danger, then, that the WTO could disintegrate. As the world’s largest trading nation, which accounts for around 13 percent of global trade, China is an essential player if the multilateral trading system is to be saved and rebuilt. In a recent interview, Lamy called upon the EU to work with China to form a united front against a “triumphant Donald Trump.”
With respect to climate change, the multilateral trading system and some other areas, China and the EU have shared interests. That is why China continues to view the EU as a partner and longs to see a united and strong EU become a formidable pillar in a multipolar world. For its part, however, the EU increasingly regards China’s economic development and technological advancement as a threat. One particularly thorny issue is Brussels’ accusation that China is supplying arms to Russia for use in Ukraine. But this grudge is misplaced. If China had armed Russian forces, the dynamics of the battlefields would have been vastly different. It’s hard to believe that Russia, with its unrivaled weapons manufacturing capacity, could leave its army in short supply.
Inherent in Trump’s “America first” mantra is a requirement to put U.S. interests ahead of any other countries, including America’s own allies. Washington would not hesitate to sacrifice the EU if it determines that U.S. interests and those of the bloc are in conflict. A hungry wolf in the wild couldn’t care less if a particular grouse is friendlier than others. Donald Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum products from the EU on national security grounds despite the fact that the bloc was Washington’s closest ally. Joe Biden, while deemed more friendly by Europeans, rejected the ruling of the WTO against Trump’s tariffs.
To implement his tax reduction plan, Donald Trump needs all the revenue from his tariffs — and much more that he could possibly lay his hands on. Last year, the EU ran a trade surplus of $156.6 billion with the United States, the second-largest surplus after China. It would become the main target of the promise of the “tariff man” to raise import duties. It is hard to tell how many concessions Donald Trump can extract from the EU when it comes to making life difficult for China.
Sacrificing others is no answer when seeking to save oneself. Appeasement in the 1930’s didn’t stop Hitler from bombing Britain — “an unmitigated disaster,” as Winston Churchill put it. History seems to have been largely forgotten as the EU has attempted to make China a sacrificial offering to Trump. But will appeasement work this time? Probably not. For the sake of saving the planet and the WTO, the EU would be well-advised to work with China, rather than joining Washington in trying to keep it down.
From China-US Focus, 2024-11-29
